For more than a few years now, market action in the ES contract has been about the same. Trend for a while then consolidation around a range of prices. Whatever the reason it is natural that one try to find a way to deal with that reality. I use Market Profile primarily, trading off specific price points called "Previous day's value area high" and Previous day's value area low". I also have additional specific setups generated by that system for entries. The advantage is that typically you are trading from the outside in rather than getting chopped up. Having said that, I like this system as well, because it offers some nice entries and with a couple of filters works pretty well. Today's open was pretty easy to trade if you identified the early trend up. I also noticed several new patterns that should be tradeable in future when price action stalls after a sustained move. What a person can do is to simply review the action after the close and look at how price behaves during a consolidation. Today for instance price stalled a couple of times after the initial signal fired off, then the histo oscillated giving multiple entries in the same direction. It was a nice day. I learned a lot today Thanks Don. Steve
I'm glad it has been of help. Your comments about reviewing price action after the close is "on point". The fun part of trading, beside the independence and money, is that I am always obseving and learning about what the market behavior is "at this time" and the best way to get into sync with its movement. The market is never "wrong", my goal is to "get right with the market".
Well here is my first attempt with this method. As the chart shows I was late with entries and early with taking profits but still managed to take 4.5 points in profits. Just entered market orders when oscillator turned after cross. I am used to using limit orders so that is new to me. It was so choppy I took profits whenever the price ran into the green. This is all sim of course. Critique welcomed. bp
Great job! I have only traded this pattern once today. I took a long during the 9:48 bar, but wound up scratching it (loss 2 ticks) when there was no momentum for the next few bars. I did not take any signals during that 10:00a-10:30a time frame, as Bernanke was speaking. There is no need to "press" a trade during Fed meetings or Bernanke testimony, so I'm usually flat during those periods. Right now, we are sitting on top of the PP, so I will not be shorting until we get a 3-4 points on top of it, so I have room to take some profits above that level. The PP will attract some buyers as it makes its' first few stabs.
Nice sell signal around 911 at 10:00am this morning. Perfect scenario to let some ride down, as the Nas is very weak. Will take off the remaining in the 901-902 area. 900.50 is the PP and 901.75 is the 50% retracement of the days range.
You must be on the east coast Don I took that short. Nice clear signal line cross at 9:44:22 EST followed by histo confirm at 10:00:24am EST on my Esignal chart. Also for those who like to get up early, there was a nice opportunity prior to the ADP employment report at 8:15am EST First cross occurred while I was asleep at a bit past 5:20am EST followed by histo confirm and entry at 7:56:55 EST. The report fired off at 8:15 and price spiked up to a high of 912.25. Admittedly a high risk trade as it could have gone against me the same distance. Traders who like to trade "events" can get a glimpse of the days calender events at www.forex forum or www.briefing.com. Check out the economic calendar. Newbies should prob stand aside and observe until they figure out how it works. Best of luck to all
Nice Steve.....and thanks for sharing that information. I'm actually on PST, but I set the computer to EST. Here's the picture......
Yep, here's my chart Traders can notice how price tested the overnight high (912) and R2 (911.75) in close proximty. Lot of confluence and plenty of reasons to look for shorts in this area. and for those who like a little background, if you looked at the intraday volume (ES contract) and OI (open interest) on the exchange site (read the daily bulletin) you would see that both volume and OI had dried up yesterday (Tuesday). This usually means that smart money is getting ready to position themselves short (either to start a counter move or to take profits).
Hey guys, I found a recorded 30 minute workshop MP3 file with a corresponding PDF by LBR. The workshop covered First Cross and several other setups. Workshop page She has a slight NJ/NY accent LOL.
Thanks Steve...this is golden. I love the analogy that Dick Arms told her. To paraphrase: "Give someone 1 watch and they can tell you what time it is. Give someone 2 or 3 watches and they're not sure what time it is"