That's why people assemble data points and reach a conclusion from alternative sources. It also helps if you have your pulse on the economy from the ground level. Ask any small business if business is picking up, then start doing that nationally, etc, etc...As opposed to centrally planned economies with their cohorts cherry picking data and massaging the numbers till they get their "targets". One thing that would amaze most people is just how much you can learn on the ground level. Asking suppliers, restaurant owners, car lots, etc, etc...It's very informative.
a person could get their own data if they could afford it, and I really am not convinced that a poll should have to cost a tremendous amount...
There are some excellent polls out there, but it's not the kind of thing the mainstream media is going to report on. It brings me back to my original point. Namely, by the time a poll becomes a bi-weekly or monthly "event", it's more than likely going to use some bag of tricks to meet "the number".
I like CalculatedRisk for just such a collection of relatively non-mainstream economic statistics. I have nothing to do with any of it, so this isn't a plug. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
If you believe in the POLLS, the Economic Data that is floating around the Main Stream Brain Washing Media, then you deserve the demise that is coming your way. There is so much disinformation, so much False Logic that is mind numbing. Traders are dropping off like flies, they are pulling their money and finding other ways to make a living. I'm not talking about the Successful scrubs who post on ET of course cuz they are Rolln. The economy is in a DEPRESSION for most the country, these numbers are beyond a smoke signal from a serious explosion that is about to happen, that will consume even more jobs and push more into poverty. The Gov understands where we are going and they recently created a 'Govern Board' to oversee Midwest Farms in order to help them out. Yea, Right, the board members are Sec of Defense, Sec of Homeland Security and countless other idiots. Regan warned of this the socialist have already taken the Financial World over, they have taken Key Manufacturing over as in GM, GE and now they are gunning for Farms as they know Food is going to be in demand and riots can break out if things are not rationed. the FRAUD is deeper than the ADP numbers people. I say, Fuck AMERICKA. It's time that the system falls. There will be states that survive and will prosper. Hopefully, the scrubs on ET wake up and reside on the states that will survive the fall. The system will collapse as in GREECE and this will force AMERIKA to get back to the basics of Capitalism, Freedom and the Constitution backing states rights.
I maybe wrong, but I thought the ADP report is generated from actual payrolls that ADP was processing over the past month. I worked for a small business and we used them for our payroll accounting. If we hired or fired someone, they knew about it immediately. If this is the type of data that ADP report is derived from, then I would trust that type information or at least interpret it differently over what the government report says.
Who cares, really? If you are a trader, all you really care about is price movements, not some number or other. The only numbers you should be worrying about are the T&S numbers for the market you are trading. Everything else is either a curiosity or a distraction.
As far as I concerned, ADP's data source is much more reliable than the magic at DOL. Who's to say the DOL numbers are the ones that are fraudulent?
Not quite... The methodology used to calculate the ADP number is in some ways similar to the one used for the BLS NFP releases. You can find the details here: http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/PDF/REVISED_METHODOLOGY_DEC_2008.pdf
Both useless, but unfortunately the large players - and I really mean pension funds and other "large tanker" investors are taking the opportunity to put some money off the table or in the new wording "risk off trading". Year end rally to bring us above 1550.