actually supposedly the economy is turning for the good. It's kinda like a automatic watch about to break down, but when you have a thousand master watch makers atempting to repair it by replacing the gears, greasing the parts; eventually it will start to cycle and function again. May not keep the best time but it will run ya ? the problem is that statistically, it has just gone up too much for too long. TOO MUCH FOR TOO LONG. Even a long like me is staying the heck away now and I don't give a crap how much higher it goes.
It all depends on the Far East really imo. If the Yen weakens substantially we will see a second leg of this recession, possible more substantial than the first in many respects. As has been said though, it's dangerous to say that anything in this game is definite.
Agree with you that going long is low probability trade. But remember that people are irrational. You'd be amazed how much money was lost on buying puts in 2006 and early 2007. We have to trade what we see on charts. Going long now is ok with intraday trades, but I agree with you and wouldn't hold anything overnight as it is now too risky. For overnight long trades, option strategies should be used instead of the underlying.
im long as per the ES thread. Will add again if we get a dip of about 30 points but i cant see that happening.
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I don't take short positions, especially at this point. maximum gain is a double, maximum loss is 4x to 10x, too scary.