zzz Preamble Wow, today I just checked the date on Fractal Theory I. Definitely doesn't feel like it's been 1.5 years since my last thread. There's a bit of a lull for me in things to engage with during the day as of late. Thought I'd do the periodic sweep to see if there are any lurkers trying to learn or refine the archived fractal stuff pioneered by JH & Spyder who would find a bit of current dialogue helpful. I was in that situation myself for quite some time, and I've had the good fortune to connect with a few incredibly helpful individuals who contributed immensely to my growth as a trader over the past few years. Where to Start I'd like to think I'm a little more easy-going than I might have come across in the past, (although I can make no guarantees!) I'm a little more tired as of late as well. I'm going to skip the presentation part of how I think this stuff works. It's all been said before numerous times in numerous ways. I've come to appreciate the subtle differences of how other individuals have made this stuff work for them differently than I have more than I used to. Imo, the three biggest pillars of this method that any interested persons completely new to this obscure branch of TA can feel free to review, are the following: Spydertrader Jack Hershey Futures Journal Iterative Refinement Traderslaboratory P/V Thread There are a lot of other great gems in many threads that jack hijacked over the years. You can also take a look at Fractal Theory I if you're interested in more details of my own perspective. I'd say 80% of it is still relevant to me, even though I might use slightly different vocabulary; or tend to be a little more liberal in regards to fractal integrity. My 2c However, I've come to firmly believe that beyond the basic skills of 1. Properly drawing price cases 2. Understanding what a fractal is 3. Applying said skills in a fractal manner, and 4. Internalizing how the fundamental x2x2y2x gaussian sequence corresponds to price movement; the utility of the myriads of detailed discussion on specific concepts and contexts is severely limited. Just about all of the successful individuals I've come across with this paradigm were the ones who were able to take its basic building blocks, get their hands dirty, and continually refine their knowledge and contextual application in a self-sufficient manner until it was comprehensive and trustworthy enough to them to apply to the market in a pragmatic manner, which thus generates consistent profits. In other words, if you can't take the core premises and find the answers yourself, you'll never find them at all. For whatever reason, most aren't able to do this. A cursory overview of any of the past threads will show that for every 10 that try to learn how to trade this way, maybe 1 comes out the other end successfully. Closing Comments Feel like I've gone on much too long already. In summary; I'd invite anyone working on these methods to use this thread as a work space for themselves. I'll try to offer value to your efforts if I'm able to do, and stay tuned to this thread for the time being, presuming there is sufficient interest. Will take PM's for a while if anyone feels a need that would be better served in a private capacity. Experienced practitioners of these concepts are more than welcome as well. I think the solitary nature of trading gets monotonous and lonesome to just about all of us at times. It would be great to hear from any familiar faces or names from years past if you happen to chance upon this thread. If there isn't any great interest in the subject at present time I will be more than happy to let the thread die off rather quickly. Not interested in proving the validity of these methods to the skeptical; justifying my own credibility, etc. etc. Best wishes to anyone who has given this a read.
The small movements of price can be put together into trends. There is a gaussian sequence that corresponds with the geometry and behavior of the trend.
This method isn't a neat little rule-set. A myriad of factors affect the duration and behavior of trends. Here is a random example of how waning market participation creates drift without a change in sentiment.
Hi Hero, Still plugging along at it eh? I was a lurker back in the day and learned a lot about the p/v relationship. One is about the counter intuitiveness of p/v and another is that going from 2-3 happens on decreasing volume. Good luck!
Hi llIHeroic, It is great that this method's discussion is still going on. I met Spyder on few occasions, he did tell me interesting things. I was a follower during the whole 1 year saga on Iterative Refinement thread. My criticism was that neither Spyder or Jack would ever trade it live for some reason. They both spent obscene amount if time helping others to understand the method, but no live trading. One of the items on Iterative Refinement thread agenda was live trading at the end. It obviously did not happen. And it was a shame. My plan was to fully automate the whole thing, but I was only willing to commit time if I had reasonable confidence that the method actually works. That being said, I learned things from Jack. One of the most important ones was a Wall. I built short term DOM trading system around Wall and ACV concepts. I moved to other things since then, but always interested in their system. Regards, redduke
Hi RedDuke, I remember that ACV thread [ an all time ET thread if you ask me ] and still use an order book delta system in my trading today because of it.
Nice to hear from you guys. You guys both demonstrate a good point; this method has an elusive quality to it. Despite the mechanical foundation which the method utilizes, complete objectivity may be impossible to come by. So many times there are multiple possibilities simultaneously on the board before the market gives enough information to provide certainty; and if you were waiting for it then you missed the train a while back. I could even see a third trend configuration from this image that appears to be valid, at least from the data shown. For a long time I personally was reading an assertion of a reasonable degree of certainty from jack and Spyder's posts over the years, which I have grown increasingly skeptical of such being offered by this paradigm as I've continued to study and apply it. Perhaps it's an interpretation bias on my part, or maybe there is some essential component that has continued to remain beyond my ability to grasp. I too would've liked to see some real-time analysis from some of the highly successful traders of this system. I don't doubt it's possible; but there seems to be some ephemeral quality that really sets a few individuals apart from the rest. One time I was comparing my trades to jack's blotter for the morning. We took the same short, but I exited it after a certain spike when everything seemed to be complete and his set of guidelines at the time even specified an exit. Jack held it through the exit signal and it went down another decent run of points. When I asked him how I could've known not to exit there; his reply was essentially, "You've just got to look at the YM, and look at the T&S, and know that a reversal wasn't possible at that point." So I'd say over time I've become a lot less ferocious in perfecting this method; stepped back [whether correctly or incorrectly] to viewing it more as a framework for interpreting market sentiment, and began to focus on developing intuitive awareness over mechanical application. I've had a few really good runs at times, but to this day I'd label my trading as marginally successful on the whole. Nothing like the extreme success JH, Spyder, and a few others have apparently produced. I have a relatively comfortable job and life; so trading remains a side-project for me when I've got the time and energy for it, unless or until I am able to generate a high and consistent enough level of income for a more concentrated allocation of my time and efforts toward it to make sense.
llIHeroic, You nailed it. It is a framework that anyone can take for their own spin. I personally totally committed to automation. Developed various algos over the years. I no longer interested in point and click. If I can not put it in source code, it does not exist for me.
In the beginning at least, these discussions are interesting. Welcome back llIHeroics! I recall enjoying reading your posts.