Here is a long term slow (large volume) chart from mid February to present. What I call an oscillation is either a change in color of the histogram or ERG on either indicator, Blue to Green (top) or Green to Blue (bottom) The middle indicator is the trading indicator and where I take all of my trading decisions and most of my exits. The lower indicator (Strength) is identical to the middle in its parameters, it is simply 7 times slower and runs off a 2nd embedded data feed that is not shown. I take some of my exits off this indicator. Understand that these trades are completely programmable because the set of rules that dictate trades and exits are 100% objective. Notice as well that the entry and exit points are not taken at specific times of the day, week or whatever. The trades are executed and exited based on the natural price oscillations themselves, thus are devoid of time constraints. some of these trades or exits execute in the middle of the night and this is why one would either selectively not take those trades or automate the process, since it is programmable, into a box. This works as well on faster (smaller volume) charts as it does on the larger volume ones but the faster the chart the more oscillations. The posted chart shows 14 trades in the last 14 weeks and not one "screaming reversal" missed.
P@l "Time is simply an non-entity." are you under the illusion that a trader working with a time chart and vol info would not be able to produce signals of equal or grater accuracy i use vol charts my self as well as tick but i believe your position to be foolish or am i misinterpreting your assertion
Prof L, nice chart and technique and I don't have a problem with what you do, only your insistence that you are the king to defer to and volume charts do everything. I wish I could automate what I do so I envy you in that regard. It is hard to examine your chart without a microscope but I have had a go by taking a recent major screamer reversal that you missed if I interpret your chart correctly. You got in on the move but somewhat late and I am mystified that you have no buy signals. Anyway, the red arrows approximate your volume signals on a time chart and the horizontal bars show your exits. There is a simple screamer short in the box that commenced this leg down. I posted a question re. this on the TA Works thread to see if anyone was awake. Also in the thread TA Doesn't Work I posted that this reversal was going to happen in advance of its formation. I also incorporated volume into the signal and asked what would come next, fat finger or war. Well it seems war by today's news. But as I say, I use Volume Charts as well as Time with Volume added. And I use other fractals as well as cycles. I am not surprised you think there was no screamer signal as when I posted a Time and Volume Chart you used for comparison you missed the screamer on Time there as well. No matter, another 15 years and you'll get there
A time chart with a volume indicator will not show the same price action or natural cyclic oscillations as a volume chart alone as long as the chart is a constant volume chart. You can see the difference in the two charts Xspurt posted earlier in the thread with just price represented. Anything that needs to be interpreted is lacking in accuracy. Tick charts are as close to volume charts are you can get but there are still subtle differences.
i'm surprised it's been left to me to mention the Elliott Wave Principle Prechter/EWI: 'Scientific Controversy: Who Discovered Financial Fractals ?' "At Elliott Wave International, we recognize that Mandelbrotâs depictions present an aspect of more comprehensive ideas first elucidated by Ralph Nelson Elliott . . . " http://www.elliottwave.com/response/ http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-fractals.html i always preach that "the price/time movement is IRREGULAR" i don't believe in 'cycles', a cycle by definition Has to repeat Exactly and none do i do have a VERY accurate and simple time targeting method i've used for decades it can be used as a standalone trading method the other trading methods/tools that i've also been using for decades work without the time component, so the use of time is mute since i concentrate on retail fx trading there's no volume except the Globex currencies i'm aware the majority of 6E and ES volume goes through at the end of the European session - 7-9am pst, an extra peak for the ES around 1pm pst, don't use volume attached: SP 500 D charts up to May 8/10 + 30 tick ES @ 11:55am pst May 25/10
Xspurt, I post charts, I fully explain what everything on the chart does, I explain entries & exits and have even posted a full set of rules in other threads that specifically spell out the objective rules that trigger each trade or exit set up. I am one of the few people in this forum that will do that. I do not "elude" to my set-ups, I do not "tease" people about what I do and I try to fully answer all questions that are put to me in regards to my charts. (given time constraints) No pun intended and none of those comments were directed at you. there are some on this site that play a riddle game and as far as I'm concerned, trading or self-investing in anything BUT a game. I do not want anyone to "defer" to any of the information I share. My goal is to put out the information to each trader that reads it will apply the concepts and prove it to themselves that it works and they can use it or it isn't for them. Either way they validate it for themselves. 6 of the 14 trades were buy points? What do you mean I have no buy signals? And only 2 of those 14 trades were very small losses. I'd say 85% win rate and a micro draw down is a good thing especially when it can be automated and is consistent. The few small red blue arrows that are unmarked are where the extreme trading oscillations begin. The larger red arrows on the trading indicator show resistance oscillations that are either sell points, buy exits or trade reversals. The larger blue arrows on the trading indicator show support oscillations that are either buy points, sell exits or trade reversals. There are no horizontal bars. There is no time chart. The entries and exits are explained in the previous paragraph. This is a 117649 constant volume bar chart (price bars and trade indicator) & a 823543 constant volume bar chart embedded at the bottom just showing the indicator which I use to show the strength of this particular chart; either Full Up, Full Down, Neutral Up or Neutral Down. The chart I've attached to this post was sent to Henry Blodget at businessinsider.com blasting him for his position on TA. This chart was sent to him on April 16th, 2010 a full 12 days before the oscillation created triggering the short on April 28th, 2010 just after midnight. This is a daily chart, which is one I personally do not trade (I use a comparable CVB chart) but when I sent this to him I figured it was easier for him to understand . . . if he even could. If you know him you can verify that or if you want, PM me and I will send you a copy of the emails both on the 16th and after the trade triggered. Xspurt, I prefer NOT to predict a trade is going to happen. I prefer to patiently wait until the oscillation occurs triggered the trade and simple execute it. I do see the POTENTIAL of that particular trade setting up to allow me to prepare for it, in case it does happen. Many times though a set up will begin to play out and then negate. This is why predicting puts traders in the realm of gambling but waiting for the oscillation to trigger and then executing the position puts a smile on my face . . . not egg. You are looking at everything I need to trade this particular environment. I find that if I look at multiple increments of the same market (unless I am intraday and ALSO swing trading the same market) the charts will show conflicting set-ups. This is normal because each increment has its own natural cyclic oscillations. On an fast swing basis, that "screamer signal" was called both short on May 3rd evening newsletter before it happened where numerous traders locked in their shorts that night pre-1190.00 and intraday short position the next morning between 1190.00 & 1182.00 . The reversal of that move triggered at 2:46:19 EST but you had to be quick. You would have had to trigger that trade within one full minute because the confirmation of that move triggered again long at 2:47:21 EST at around 1073.00 .That intraday signal exited at 3:11:17 at around 1127.00. I don't miss $hit. As I stated previously, there are more than one way to extract profit from the markets. You have your way and I have mine. I know why mine works for me and I post detailed charts that show it, I can automate it and I share so others can see it. I no longer have to spend hours and hours in from of the screens. Now I do it cause I love it. You know why yours works and you are confident with it's results and that is all that matters right, consistent profitability. Maybe in 15 more years you will find something consistent enough a stupid emotionless computer can trade for you without teaching it about the space time continuum. (You know I respect your trading & opinions. That was a playful jab)
Wallace, I will admit you are a profitable trader and that your focus is different than mine. That being said I need to correct your statement. A cycle is a repeating event or process . . . period. It in no way shape or form does it have to exactly repeat. I will defer to all of our wives and girlfriends. Go tell your wife or girlfriend her cycle has to exactly repeat to be valid. Be sure to stand farther than arms length when you tell her that though.
hey ProfLogic i'll have to correct your correction statement i think you picked on the wrong example - menstruation menstruation is something that can be controlled by the woman up to and including the cessation of menstruating, and re-starting it again often in frat houses it's the Alpha woman whose cycle the others change to my understanding of cycle is 'circle' 'a' cycle is absolute, if it's 5 day, minutes, hours whatever it HAS to complete at the end of the tick of 4:23:59:59, 4:59, 4:59:59 and has to start that cycle again at 0:00:00:00, 0:00, 0:00:00 repeating to end as above, a circle, a cycle and that cycle is that cycle; it's not - for me - open to variations in the length of the cycle, that it's a variable, maybe cycle but absolute, notwithstanding the atomic clocks have to be adjusted every year and the speed of light is not constant often but not always a projection fibo of the wave 0 - 1 provides the subsequent wave peaks levels, so one can suggest the wave 1 fractal nature of the price movement, but EW theory has a LOT of correction variations and extensions which is why i switched to 'Wallace Wave Analysis' also i never read anything about how Elliott calculated his time targets which as we're discussing is or can be the most difficult part of price/time movement analysis but so far as EW goes, all i've seen is non-comforming cycles, outside of fibo relationships is time also fractal ? is a price fractal time dependant ?
Those are menstrual cycles Wallace and they call it that for a reason. Seasons are cyclic, ocean waves are cyclic, weather patterns are cyclic, migration is cyclic . . . look it up. The sheer definition states nothing are each cycle being exact in length and width. All cycles vary in length and width but all contain distinct extreme tops and bottoms that are singular.