Fractal nature of stock market...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by gettinglucky, May 12, 2010.

  1. Xspurt:

    What you said is intriguing. Would you explain more the dimension of Space Time in the context of a price chart? I am only familiar with this term in physics.
     
    #41     May 23, 2010
  2. You are pushing your luck :)

    My approach is very different from this and so are some of my conclusions but years back it provoked my thinking. Perhaps it will yours.

    http://ermanometry.com/articles/log_spirals_in_the_stock_market.php

    Last clue: What moves your chart to the right is crucial in how it controls all movement. So what is commonly referred to as PA is actually Time Action. Let's say we have a time period of consolidation. The Time chart looks boring with little volume and a continuous linear move to the right. The Volume reader sees the same thing but the rate of movement is different because he is observing space time. The Range Chart is really price action and doesn't move to the right but under this single bar there can be very significant volume accumulation telling the next direction.

    All the traders draw trend lines that occupy space and time. The Time chart pushes the trend line way to the right. The Volume chart less so and the Range chart least of all.

    Now what will happen when price hits the trend line on each chart? It can be equally as significant for each viewpoint but will affect price at very different points.

    So I agree that trend lines can be both curved and straight although I am not convinced that the market is a spiral. Space time can bend a line and keep it more accurate than a straight line just as space time can bend light and make time elastic.

    Taking a single dimensional approach to the market movement makes no sense at all and if you try to discover repeating fractals on a time chart it will sooner or later self destruct because there is no single controlling dimension.

    All I intended to do was push the thread on a little. That's my contribution :)
     
    #42     May 23, 2010
  3. The main application of fractals to markets that I'm aware of is the claim that markets are scale invariant - which is to say you can't tell a weekly chart from a monthly chart or a 10 minute chart.

    This claim is useful because it gives an intellectual justification as to why you can try to use the same patterns at different timescales - some find this comforting.

    I suppose you can argue that fractals make sense in nature because they are an efficient construction algorithm. Your DNA contains construction instruction, and some kind of looping behaviour is a logical way to build complexity with sparse instruction.

    I don't know why prices ought to be fractal - they certainly appear to be the case, but I think the subtle differences are probably where the real insight lies. Why does momentum appear at one time scale but not the next?

    Some people assume that Mandelbrot only turned to look at market prices late in his career, but in fact he started looking at cotton prices in the 1960s.
     
    #43     May 23, 2010
  4. Thanks Xspurt. Your post has provoked my thinking more.
     
    #44     May 23, 2010
  5. LEAPup

    LEAPup

    You're on to something! Check out a lecture John Murphy gave on T/A and correlations. Amazing stuff! Good post bro!
     
    #45     May 23, 2010
  6. LEAPup

    LEAPup

    You too are also on to something. Let's disseminate between correlations that guys like T/A trader Jonh Murphy points out in his talks. Let's see just where this goes.

    Here's a clip I found on youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdkMbxYC9y0&feature=related
    I wanted to find the 90 min video lecture to post, but obviously can't get that on youtube. Maybe some of you computer gurus can find it so we can add that to the thread, and get feedback? I don't agree with everything John says, but I'm also not on youtube, bloomberg, money shows, writing books, rich, etc., Lol
     
    #46     May 23, 2010
  7. Read the first two lines of my first post. That's John.

    Good luck. you'll need it.
     
    #47     May 23, 2010
  8. LEAPup

    LEAPup

    I didn't know that. Is he one to take out of my "mental rolodex?" I posted above that I didn't always agree with him. What of his theory do you think he's accurate about, and what's he missing the boat on?
     
    #48     May 23, 2010
  9. Just to let you know the research and sweat equity does pay off but unless you expend the effort, you will never know for sure.

    I did. I spent 15 years finding those correlations and you are dead wrong.

    Since you have never researched it for yourself, your only response can be . . . "no, I'm right" and that is where I get my ten year old to pitch hit for me.

    X, I respect your opinions and your posts but in this instance you need to defer to those that know or defer till which time you can verify it for yourself.
     
    #49     May 23, 2010
  10. How can a move in price not be related to one before? It must be as i understand. Often with Fib numbers because they are important to human psychology according to research.

    Over longer timeframes i guess the future becomes more and more predetermined.
    What is time? Just an illusion to our senses? How could they have known so long ago that the time around 2012 would mean a major paradigm shift?
     
    #50     May 24, 2010