Nonsense. Actually the market is highly unpredictable, and the smaller the time frame, the more unpredictable; which contradicts your fractal statement.
I try to monitor the Short Term, Long Term, and Intermediate Term trends and how they give context and there interrelationship. Currently the IT trend is down so the obvious thing to do is sell any rally UNLESS the counter short term trend is strong enough to change the intermediate term trend.....got it?
Take the last 2 weeks for instance and just multiply the daily range by a factor of 1-10 and it looks like any other day. But what f's up the fractal argument is RTH.
- 5-year period is way too long. To find the period with the optimal Hurst exponent look at 3 months or less. - Markets are probably trending towards less randomness over time. However circa 2000 you can find studies with Hurst exponent of approx 0.65. Nowadays markets are probably "more rational" (less random). Additionally any measurements will be hampered by all the volatility. Still if anyone thinks this would give them an edge it would be interesting to see the analysis.
I would say it is the opposite. More players, more methods, more money, more efficiency, harder to profit.
thats true too. the financial markets have many more individuals and novices than before; which would make the market much more unpredictable. however with the introduction of high frequency trading using complex computer programs, the market may be less volatile and this of course is just my very broad non mathamatical deduction
I'd like to see someone post charts without any description or time, on a liquid stock or futures contract. Lets see who can discern the time scale. Has anyone read 'Chaos making a new science' by James Gleick? True classic