Yep. Autumn for the US was frm 1981-2007. 26 years of Fun. It is symbolized by a debt bonanza with falling inflation and interest rates. The first 3 seasons see stocks and bonds move in the SAME direction. In Winter, stocks and bonds move in opposite directions. Some say that Winter started in 2000, but in 2003 the normal stock/bond relationship was restored yet again. Stocks and bongs diverged in December of 2006 until August of 2007, then briefly synchronized for 3 months and finally broke apart in October of 2007. The tentative starts of Kondratieff Winter in 1998 and 2000 were averted due to both Greenspan and Bernanke coming to the rescue. Is the "Third Time" the Charm?
There was a book out maybe 10-15 years ago with that title "The Fourth Turning" (or something close) that I read. The first 3 turns make sense. I think the fourth turn (at least of your quote) might be off the mark. For example, the Iraq war is not a monumental disruptive event for most Americans. However, there are two LARGE macro events unfolding everywhere in my opinion: 1) The re-invention of the printing press (internet) 2) Globalization
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Well, my tin foil hat is keeping me warm these days. I put on another hat for trading. It's got some holes but it's hanging in there.