I'd like to get a reality check. HSY trading at $39 http://www05.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=hsy With papertrading on TOS, both the Aug/Nov put spread $20 and the call spread $50 could be bought at $.05 on 7/22 Margin =0, total investment less than $100 (fees, bid/ask) for 10 contracts each. If Volatility doesn't change, you can make $1750 if the underlying either drops 50% or gains 20%. With the probabilities from TOS: 80% of the time you'll be out $100=$80. 20% of the time you'll hit the calendar $850 (avg win) =$170. Thus, you'd make $90 per trade. Nice return for $100 investment. Losing $100 about 8 times out of 10 should be ok even for small accounts. Does that mean there'd be an edge in the long run or is it just papertrading baloney and you can't get these spreads that cheap?