This is what I call a Foshizzle Day. Confirmation on a lower fractal that the trend is changing. Without further info the top of this intermediate term trend may be 1125 however that fact is never confirmed until after the fact. I still expect another dying gasp to attempt the glory of new year highs but I definitely heard the vocalization of a wounded animal.
Look at the attached monthly VIX chart. The range is compressed at the FAR end of the low going back to 2007. Something's gonna give. Monday at 10am EST will likely be a good day to kick off a good low risk short if I had to guess
OK now look at unemployment and job growth in April/May 2007 when the VIX was at this level. Unemployment was 4.4%. Job growth was positive or near baseline. http://fidweek.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=442380&cust=mam&year=2010#top Now we have unemployment of >10% Negative job growth "but less negative" I'll believe higher prices when I see them and am looking to short this puppie and soon......
Spoos target reached as anticipated. Reckoning day Monday March 8th, 2010 at 10:05 am. Today was the bull trap. See you there.
BTW "day ofreckoning" is in good fun----just mean to say I anticipate a sell-oof at 10:05am secondary to the overbought nature of the market and overhead resistance. Cheers