How come I can always tell about a thread that it was done by you? I agree with Makloda, how can this information help me to trade today? It can not... So you might as well stop posting them. Yes, we are in a bearmarket, we got it....
Not to detract from this, but I've posted about this on my blog at www.themarketchatter.blogspot.com. The point is all of that data is baked into the cake. Everyone is aware. Guidance was lowered from 20% losses in earnings to 50%. If you lower guidance anymore you're saying every company loses money. Fat chance. The volatility is emotional more than it is fundamental. And that's why bulls can make a lot of money here. The market is broken down this way for much of the loss: Financials were 20% of the market, they've declined about 80% with a recent 40% retracement. There's a 16% loss. Commodities and energy stocks were 25% of the S&P 500. They've declined a little bit more than half, so say that's 10% of the loss. So we've found 1.16*1.1=1.276-1=27.6% of the decline in the S&P. What's the rest? Stocks thrown out with the bath water. Wall Street has mistakenly gone with flow and lowered guidance for retailers. The only one that won't lose that is a huge part of the dow and S&P is WMT. That'll single handedly keep the market from going down. The baths are pretty specific to commodities and financials, IMO.
Too funny. You're a bright young guy (I mean that) who knows shit about markets. For starters if your macro-economic view is correct then municipal bonds will be the single best short in America. How do you start a thread a week ago asking for help avoiding dollar risk and then settle on a dollar denominated fixed income investment? Makloda has it right. The key is to take an opinion-right or wrong- and make money on it. If Domesday comes do you think Salinas Ca muni bonds are a worthwhile solvency bet? I see munis as toxic. While I have no idea if the low is in-the 70's and 1938 say yes-this too could be the "big one" though-a few other guys make the points that your young ears had better listen. Bad news is expected. There have been multitudes of times when stocks lead economic data lower and then while the economy is still tanking stocks begin pre-emptively rallying on expectation of recovery. Ala' the past 6 days. I am short. Since Friday. Technical reasons. Sooner or later we could fail off a rally like this. Take out Fridays highs though and I'm out. Until I see an increased number of NBA/NHL teams playing in front of less than sellout crowds or until I can get a Friday night table at a restaurant without waiting an hour I'm inclined to say this is 1938 redux. World War in Pakistan/India/China awaits.....
China breaking hard, and IMVHO, it will be a long, dry spell for them: " Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Chinaâs manufacturing shrank by the most on record and export orders plunged, adding to evidence that recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan are dragging down the worldâs fastest-growing major economy. The Purchasing Managersâ Index fell to a seasonally adjusted 38.8 in November from 44.6 in October, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in an e- mailed statement. A second PMI, released by CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, also showed a record contraction." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aVRGLHihqJtM&refer=home The million dollar question for the day is: Where will all the world's discretionary consumers have gone if the Americans don't or won't play fully up that role as they have for decades past? (Pabst, I appreciate the compliment, registered the comments, and will respond comprehensively sooner or later - especially with respect to the shorting of treasury proposal ; it's a very good question, and deserves a thoroughly calculated response.)
More grist (worthy, at that) for the mill: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0XWoWq6J5k8&refer=home So, we now have 'synchronized (and real) slowing around the globe,' with the U.S. exporting unemployment. I sure as hell can't see how egg head, wonkish economists at central banks are going to magically create jobs, let alone stem further job losses, among the 20 most developed economies in the world. As they say in Vietnam movies, 'I got a bad feeling this time, LT.'
I expect the market to fluctuate today, so I will trade accordingly As for the future, I worry for my kid's sake. As for trading...serve it up
Riots reported in China, with factory workers who have been shut out of the plants burning police cars and anything else. Serious issues, PEOPLES... Russia just reported record economic contraction, in addition to China's record manufacturing contraction. pabst - muni bond spreads are at record or near record levels compared to treasuries.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.PiYcst3pEo&refer=home "Russia Manufacturing PMI Drops to Lowest on Record....Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Russian manufacturing shrank more in November than during the 1998 financial collapse as the global economic crisis drove output and new orders to record lows and companies cut jobs, VTB Bank Europe said...."
I read that the risk of default with muni bonds is less than 1/70th of one percent - I believe the hard numbers are something like less than 7 defaults in 42 years. They are backed by taxpayers, after all, with many states having arrangements to back the local units in the event of default. Anyways, given their tax exempt status and full faith and credit of taxpayers, along with a low historical risk of default, a muni bond fund with at least 82% AAA holdings may be a good thing going.