forum consensus on AMZN

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by scriabinop23, Apr 25, 2007.

Buy or Short?

  1. Long to 60+

    15 vote(s)
  2. Short

    18 vote(s)
  1. Just want to see what the ET consensus on Amazon is.
  2. Main Entry: ca·pit·u·la·tion
    Pronunciation: k&-"pi-ch&-'lA-sh&n
    Function: noun
    1 : a set of terms or articles constituting an agreement between governments
    2 a : the act of surrendering or yielding b : the terms of surrender

    blow-off top

    A steep, rapid price rise followed by a steep, rapid price drop.

    John·ny-come-late·ly (jŏn'ç-kŭm-lât'lç)
    n. Informal., pl. John·ny-come-late·lies or John·nies-come-late·ly (jŏn'çz-).
    A newcomer or latecomer, especially a recent adherent to a cause or trend.

    Bull Trap: A situation that occurs when prices break above a significant level and generate a buy signal, but suddenly reverse course and negate the buy signal, thus "trapping" the bulls that acted on the signal with losses. A bull trap is another form of whipsaw and relates to the upthrust.
  3. I'm just relieved everyone isn't overwhelmingly thinking short.
    Its a sign that it still could be viable.
  4. Rugby


    How short are you Scriab?
  5. heheh

    i own some jun 55 puts.. its a nice sized position, and i'm having doubts in this bull of bulls. Despite that, I'm overwhelmingly long others (aapl, goog, ice, etc) so its all a balancing act.
  6. Amazon is not now only priced for perfection, they are priced for the impossible.

    Just my opinion. Revenue growth of the type they experienced - after all, they really are a garden variety retailer - is a once or twice off event.

    At a forward P/E of around 62 now, I know what I would be doing if I owned this stock.

    If this was a biotech or tech company with a patented, must have, killer app/drug, with endless growth in sight, it would be a different story. But it's not. It's a retailer.
  7. gov


    What Comanche said, exactly. I shorted MOC today, and if it trades above yesterday's high on open I'll likely double down. I expect a quick fade, however, and if that doesn't happen I'll be throwing more fuel on I guess. Statistically, it pays to short today, and tomorrow open at the latest on these huge volume spikes. What news could be better than today? This volume episode was huge, and as it hangs here near the top looking bullish it will really favor the shorts, and then the grind downward begins as the weak hands sell out. If that doesn't happen it will be the exception to the rule. I have not traded stocks in over 18 months, but this used to be one of my favorite trades. That's my plan; we'll see how it plays out tomorrow. FWIW, I think it trading above the 30 minute high tomorrow would be a big warning sign....

    If it goes well, as I recall the drop starts in a couple days, and takes a week or two to play out fully.
  8. AMZN was the short squeeze of the decade in the 90's....
  9. hels02


    I am also temporarily short Amazon, but in puts. I absolutely would not short sell this, that's potential suicide.

    Amazon is NOT just a 'garden variety' retailer. It is far from. I spend a huge amount of $$ on Amazon for the convenience, and you can buy damned near anything except clothes (well, you might be able to buy clothes, dunno, but I wouldn't buy clothes online).

    I picked up my Sony HDV 1080i camcorder, plus all the best lenses there last summer for CHEEP. You can literally buy anything you can think of at Amazon, I know a woman who bought an $18,000 Italian leather couch there for under $2K.

    You need a new Kitchenaid stand mixer? 600 thread count sheets? Walmart silicone cookware? An obscure book that's been out of print for 20 years? You can get it in 5 minutes, delivered to your door in 3-10 days, and the shipping costs less than sales tax, which you don't pay.

    Just a retailer? As the world computerizes, Amazon and Ebay can replace even Walmart. And more and more people shop there. I have even bought giant things like garden storage bins on Amazon (for LESS than the price of Walmart or Target, and higher quality). Geez, I can find Martingale dog collars for my dog there for 1/3 the price of a pet shop.

    Wake up. Amazon is NOT 'just' a retailer... it makes Walmart look like a mom and pop fruit stand for variety and price.

    Ebay covers the rest. I bought brand new discontinued rare $360 rollerblades for my little one on Ebay for $40. I doubt I would have found those blades again in this lifetime if not for Ebay (K-2 227G's, 7000 series Aluminum for those who care about that kind of thing).

    Between Amazon and Ebay, there is no need to leave your house except to buy food and clothes, and they actually sell both.

    You can live in a cave in Arkansas, and if the Post Office delivers there, you can get anything anyone in Midtown Manhattan can buy because of those 2 businesses. They are unique and extraordinary in every sense of the word, and there is no other business model like them in the world.
  10. Such bravado from you lately, hels. ;)

    FYI - You can order the same stuff Amazon sells on any retailer's own website. They all have 'em now. And they'll all ship to your house, too. There's nothing unique about Amazon's business model. :)
    #10     Apr 26, 2007