fortes fortuna juvat

svrz · Apr 27, 2017

fordewind said:
Not really.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/attachments/dd-png.166479/

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/attachments/cumulative-png.166478/
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Hmm! Draw downs of 8.5 - 10% seem to be high, no? Can you kindly post a graph of draw downs with 'currency' as the mode?

So if I may ask, if draw downs are not the problem, then what is holding you back? Brokers such as AMP futures only require $500 margins for the contract that you trade (6E). An account with a cash value of $1000 will allow you to trade one contract and withstand a draw down of nearly 80 ticks which is $500.

fordewind · Apr 27, 2017

svrz said:
Good to know. I have not reviewed the material since 2013. I will have to read the 'Exact Science' thread once again.
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To make trip short start with the node flow and the price cases.You`d hardly need anything else.The above automated results are just from the Ross Hook(Jack`s 1-2-3-FTT) and volume indicators.

fordewind · Apr 27, 2017

svrz said:
Hmm! Draw downs of 8.5 - 10% seem to be high, no? Can you kindly post a graph of draw downs with 'currency' as the mode?

So if I may ask, if draw downs are not the problem, then what is holding you back? Brokers such as AMP futures only require $500 margins for the contract that you trade (6E). An account with a cash value of $1000 will allow you to trade one contract and withstand a draw down of nearly 80 ticks which is $500.
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The best hedge funds in the industry with the 7-8% DD considered as superstars.Of course i`d want to further reduce.

So far i`m not working with the automations and cannot commit even 1K to it at this time.But even 10K doesn`t make sense to bother.Even if you do 80% per year on 10K, what`s the point?It`s nothing really.

fordewind · Apr 27, 2017

The results were for the 150K account.Can`t be bothered to start with less i think.

P.S.I didn`t keep it in figures, sorry.

fordewind · Apr 27, 2017

The rigorous - 32 years test for the Hook is here:

http://oxfordstrat.com/trading-strategies/ross-hook-1/

The Sharpe is 0.6 only, but i buys long Hooks and sell short,instead otherwise.

svrz · Apr 27, 2017

fordewind said:
The results were for the 150K account.Can`t be bothered to start with less i think.

P.S.I didn`t keep it in figures, sorry.
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Well, it certainly depends on how many contracts you want to trade. I assume you are not planning on holding positions 'over night.' If so, then as I stated, an $1000 per contract allocation would guard you against draw downs of up to 80 ticks. Given these parameters, if you still think you need a $150,000 account, then you must be a high roller and I salute you.

fordewind · Apr 27, 2017

svrz said:
Well, it certainly depends on how many contracts you want to trade. I assume you are not planning on holding positions 'over night.' If so, then as I stated, an $1000 per contract allocation would guard you against draw downs of up to 80 ticks. Given these parameters, if you still think you need a $150,000 account, then you must be a high roller and I salute you.
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It`s not about hi rolling.It`s just standrads that used.All goes from risks first.If your system has a 15K DD per year with the potential of 120K profit, how would you trade it with 5K or 10K?

svrz · Apr 27, 2017

fordewind said:
The rigorous - 32 years test for the Hook is here:

http://oxfordstrat.com/trading-strategies/ross-hook-1/

The Sharpe is 0.6 only, but i buys long Hooks and sell short,instead otherwise.
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Interesting, thanks for sharing.

Sprout · Apr 27, 2017

With Jack 2.0 he talks about the process of testing in order to label volume bars, and has some definitions in the following thread:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/volume.257284/page-23
at the end of the thread, Jack answers Baro-san's question of why not just focus on bar-to-bar.

I think this is Frenchfry's log sheet corrected by Jack.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/atta...ion-for-jack-s-reply-to-et-on-sct-jpg.134883/

Jack also uploads all the tables and logic for the volume based method in this thread, maybe a couple pages prior from this link;
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-handed-to-me-on-a-daily-basis.275733/page-60
Another batch of his uploads are around the 90 page mark.

I'm currently working to pull together the 11 names and definitions of the volume bar.
From the log header in the Iagmbhtmoad thread:
P1 - Peak 1
T1 - Trough 1
P2 - Peak 2
T2P - Trough of secondary (from T1 to P2)
T2F
3
4
5
6
P3F
P3P

However, in reviewing his charts circa 2013,
There are additional labels
PP1
PP2
PP3
PP4
HVBO
LVBO
BM REV

Glossary:
EE - End Effect
UL - Use larger (measurement of volume)
XR - Translation Short
XB - Translation Long
Wait - 50% of the time, Know that you Know
BM - Bookmark
GED -
PEP - Pool Extraction Paradigm
01 - Operators in the Mind - Space
02 - Operators in the Mind - Shape
03 - Operators in the Mind - Movement
OOE - Operating Order of Events
PM - Parametric Measure
Deduction vs Induction
HS -
Reverse Chron Check

In terms of programming, from the previous threads he was advocating RDBMS and Haskell.

Sprout · Apr 27, 2017

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/volume.257284/page-24

Jack Hershey said:
We can understand that price gives permission to measure volume.

We know the 10 cases cold. 2 give permission. 1 reqires that two volume and price cases be used on one bar.

we have 7 to go. Six are pairs.

the first bar has hppened and we only need to examine the second bar. We write in the log its price pair case.

Sym, FTP, FBP, Hitch, stitch red, or stitch black

These have been coded (meaning they have been coded by many many people and put into named libraries); they appear with a blue border and a yellow interior region. Their"perception comes easily and automatically.

Also it is know where the Arrow in he UL column of the log points. If it points to the second bar, a volume name is "True" in one or other of the volume columns OR an End Effect criteria is met and entered in the EVENT column.

The simplicity of SCT comes from three things:

1. the finite gating of price permission.

2. the three part volume test procedure to complete trends using a finite number of volume possibilies.

3. Always "knowing that you know" when an End Effect occurs from the item 2 above.

So what is left to do is explain the errors, I have suggested, are being made.

Here are the locations of the current errors of those who are "working":

1. Laterals are not done correctly. I will explain them with mathematical constructs.

2. The conclusion of the test procedure is NOT understood.

3. For some reason a myth exists that a person has to know each of the 35 End Effects that compose the FBO's of trends as well as what ends a full trend.

I'll do each on separate posts.

#240 Feb 12, 2013

Laterals

! A lateral becomes present by:

1. squish the pair forming the first two bars.

2. note the H and the L.

3. Bar 3 is not ouTside the H or L.

4. record the price name as lat3.

The lat continues until BO which means BreakOut.

Here is the test for each succeding bar of the lateral.

1. The prior price name is latn where n is 3 or more.

2. An H test is performed with the close and H; the maths is Close < = H (in the context of latn).

AND

3. A L test is performed with the close and L; the maths is Close > = H (in the context of latn).

4. The AND between 2. and 3. means both MUST be True.

5. BO is the OR of 2 and 3 where the "FALSE" output of 2 and three are OR'ed.

As you see this logic can extend as long as the lateral BUT at the BEGINNING of lat 7 (whether it ocurs on bar close or not, a retro process begins and then continues as long as the lateral continues and when it BO's.

I have been kept in the dark in the absence of annotations and displays and completed logs.

the lat 7 RETRO is as follows:

1. Use the column to the right of the EVENTS column and label it lat sub.

2. Fill in the volume event for all lat bars so far. There will be EE's label them P3P whether or not a full trend ends. I tried to provide all PP's by now.

3. Assign P1's properly. If in the future there are improper P!'s assignments I will say they are too late.

4. As bar lat7 comes to an end, if it is not a lat7, do not make use of retro and return to normal price permission after this bar did the BO and either do UL naming or if not UL then write WAIT in that bar row.

5. If lat 7, then keep doing lat stuff and log sub fractal every bar.

When you get this in hand, we can do trading strategy after you deal with the other two outstanding learning issues.

#241 Feb 12, 2013

Understanding the conclusion of the volume test procedure.

As a tend continues, it measures the unchanging human pschology handed down as heredity and character.

The trading fractal has two variables and the paradigm , with certainty defines the independent and dependent variables. Time is NOT part of this. Only events are. Events are orderly.

Because of the above, an independent variable test procedure can exist. It does. Therefore, conclusions can be drawn from the test.

In human behavior, the behavior is contextual.

Repeat is a context. record the repeat as a trend continuation without forward progress. The context of repeat, repeat allows you to draw conclusions when at the two differnt sides of the trend space. On one side acceration is required on the other it is NOT required.

Primary events can end trends as you see above. If any subsequent primary is between any repeat, then the trend ends. This is where the CW folk are confused and doing fearful, anxious and angry things to muddle the market. You reverse to take profits and set up making the next segment to frontrun.

On OB's both prior extermes have been violated. This is the absence of the herd, who aat this time is procrastinating afte assuming a sideline position as consequence of exceeding "pain " thresholds. We take profits or move ahead quickly in the trend.

A P>>T context is a reversal. a T>>P context is a HOLD. FYI the P's are P!1, P2, P3 and the peak of the secondary named T2P. All other names are T's.

Finally, we look at the ordinary. When you go through the primary aand then the secondary you have completed the three moves of the one and only one pattern of the operation of the market. I say this from the viewpoint of an informed person who has done the work and reducede it to one and only one type of Algebra completely and fully. I have few peers.

There is only one test result. All trending possibilities are not there. The conclusion is that there is no space in the region (or defined subregions) where the trend may continue.

You tested for repeats; you tested for all reverse chrons in a methodalogical manner; there are no nexts.

You have a complete and defined context.

reverse instead of HOLD.

#242 Feb 12, 2013

Dealing withy the myth.

Because of my heritage and character, I am equipped to model and work and create full complete systems for various applications.

I was taken to the Center for Advanced Studies while in my scholastic educational period. I entered BTL as an MTS without doing Kelly college as part of STEM. Derman was at Murray hill and not even part of STEM.

Extracting capital from pools where the owners and operators have a simple trading structure IS the perverbial "taking candy away from babies".

SA is used in the context of the Scientific Method. MADA is how it is done as a SYSTEM PROCESS.

The dependent variable (price) operates within a region that is constructed using interlocking parts in a fixed ratio. 10 possible RDBMS cases exist. They are thoroughly defined.

The independent variable moves forward through all of its definable cases

In this built model of a complete system, you NOW, can examine this space (region) and always in terms of its (at the event) contextual existance. When a violation occurs, the trend has failed.

This Holy Grail (as the CW terminology goes) is a system; it operates; it is completely definable by using the correct algebra. Thus, you have been given the candy store.

What you accomplished was the work to actually be able to have the system.

BE DO HAVE.

My warm up drill was the computers of the 700 series of the IBM mainframes. I had the "D" size drawings of all the logic in my mind. I needed it there in my mind to be able to say where the glitch was to be able to put in the "fix".

At some point IBM decided to skip thorough testing of their non vacuum tube mainframes and compress the time to get to market. So final design testing was done at the end of the production line. System test procedures had to be 10X's more effective and efficient to keep final testing turning over as fast as sales (80% of world market).

So markets and their operation are simple. 1's and 0's are all that are being looked at. 1's and 0's come from how the variable values are stacked up. There is nothing else to have to look at. Market paricipants only do one kind of information transfer to the markets. Finite numbers.

Granularity dictates the SA of market operation. Only one algebra satisfies the SA requirement.

#245 Feb 12, 2013

Quote from frenchfry:
"
So based only on these three definitions would you agree that in the example I highlighted that there is NO lateral between bars 66 and 72 (73)? Bar 68 already violates the third definition in your list.

Don't worry, I'm not trying to blame you but want to see if maybe there is another definition which I'm not aware of. Which then hinders me to follow you."

No.

Starting with bar 64, there is a reversal long.

then bar 65 assigned P1,

66 T1
67 P2
68 P1
69 P2
70 region violation, reverse short

71 assign P1
72 WAIT
73 lat3 UL PI
74 UL lat 4 P1 w/accel, reverse long
75 UL lat 5 assign P1
76 BO T1
77 P2

78 Advance one peak (P3P) reverse short
79 WAIT
80 WAIT lat 3
81 WAIT lat 4 EOD

On open the next day there is a BM issue and a BO issue to keep in mind.

MADA has the MA and the DA.

MA is the annotating and logging. Most annotating is automatic for price with highlights. The rays in volume annotate the events. They are logged where you use an arrow to create the volume test procedure and draw conclusions in a context.

DA for me is carving turns to make money. I do not stay in the market when the herd is being subjected to the margin change. I have my capital in the markets, so I cannot afford to deal with my IB ajusting my account to deal with a change of margin.

I am making an effort to inform you. I can see that I do not do this very well and others, correctly, are pointing this out. The above is typed bar-by-bar to correct my errors and to help you out.

Somehow, I feel that learning is important since the mind grows properly.

OT I went through five levels of people today who were not receptive to what it is like to be introducing heavy metal toxins into the bodiy. Four levels stonewalled us while we wanted to gather information.

I found that it is correct for surgeons to protect themselves; I no longer expect a person to take any data if it puts him at risk.

My job is to stop toxins from being introduced and my job is to get the toxins removed. This is done with skilled people who know what they are doing.

It is the surgeon's CEO's job to give me the corporate lawyers phone number and address and to have his surgeon begin to read the letters he signed and to no longer send form letters to past patients not being monitored for heavy metal tissue damage. Our future is now Paid in Full.

#247 Feb 12, 2013

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