Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by jayjay121, Mar 22, 2012.
If an ETF tracks your portfolio, you trade the ETF.
I'd still net the deltas first, then hedge the residual.
Issue here than annoys me is the SPY hedge may add risk, depending on the OP's basket.
Yeah. The hedge would be:
So you if you are long BAC and short GS in equal notional then the GS would hedge a good chunk of the BAC.
You are right about not getting a good hedge. You will have a lot of basis risk - but that's why the OP has the position in the first place. He's trying to eliminate the market risk, and he may not even do that.
i realise that i will not be able to eliminate all risk. The idea is to protect myself if things go completely one side, even then i would lose and not be able to completely save the day, but difference is i want to still be in business and not wiped out, so must hedge for black swan event.
ive just backtested the simple formula and my large winner days were smaller with the hedge and the large losing days were also smaller as expected. So curve is smoother but return is less. But i take the smoother curve anyday.
Im not pair trading. I want to be able to select all stocks that fit my critria on that day without worrying too much about main market direction. This means on some days i will be too long or too short. yes these days do produce the best win days but when wrong the losses can be tough.
So with all that in mind is the first formula (total postions value/SPY price) the most ideal for my purpose?, or should i use the one above with the beta added in it?
How is this not a pairs trade?
what happens if one of your stocks reports an accounting irregularity that was overlooked by the auditors and the company is in fact insolvent?
in addition to market hedging you will also need company risk hedging via options on oversized positions and/or proper money management (ie never risk more than 2% of account on any one position) and/or proper diversification...
..do you see how this can get very complicated very quickly?....
hi, yes i see how it can become complicated so simple is best. It does not have to fit perfectly.
It is not a pair trade because pair trading takes into account sector, correlation and normally goes against another stock within the pair. Im just selecting stocks based on my critria, and this could give a very different basket each day. So im not concerned with sector or correlation when my strategy picks a stock. I am though concerned with overall market direction therefore i need the hedge if i become too long or too short within the basket.
Correct me if im wrong as i felt this is not pair trading. Im not looking for pairs specifically. It could be anything.
Also for the money management part, yes im only risking 1% of my account per trade based on average daily range.
Im not very good with math formula's hence why i ask the question. Just looking for a good formula i can use in excel that quickly protects me if needed.
So, your expecting the longs to go up, and the shorts to go down in isolation. Not in relation to each other.
Which means you're expecting your selection produces absolute winners per trade, not relative winners within a paired basket.
On net here, we seem to be hedging your stock selection criteria.
so are you saying im better off without the hedge?
but what if the basket becomes too one sided?. Stocks do move on their own merit but if i feel i may need something if something major is happening with the main cash markets, dont you agree?
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