https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/23/poli...warren-bernie-sanders-black-voters/index.html The most important number in the CNN 2020 poll isn't the one you think it is Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large Updated 12:15 PM ET, Wed October 23, 2019 (CNN)Joe Biden is ahead! By a lot! And by a lot more than he was just a few months ago! That's the obvious takeaway from a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS examining the 2020 Democratic primary. The former vice president stands alone in first place with 34% followed by Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 19% and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 16%. None of the other 15(!) candidates in the race made it into double digits. That's very good news for Biden. As is the fact that he has jumped 10 points since a CNN poll done in September while support for both Warren and Sanders stayed generally static over the same time. But, that's not the real story here. The real story is how Biden is ahead in this poll. And that answer is the key to understanding whether or not Biden will ultimately be the party's nominee. Since I'm a good guy, I'll tell you the answer: Biden is ahead because he is consolidating his support among non-white voters, a key voting bloc among whom he already had a very clear edge over his primary rivals. Here's how the numbers by race break out in the new CNN poll: Whites Biden 27% Warren 23% Sanders 15% Non-Whites Biden 42% Sanders 16% Warren 13% That's striking stuff. And while Biden has long led among non-white voters, his support has surged since earlier this fall when he was taking just 28% of their vote in a hypothetical Democratic primary ballot. Why is his support among non-white voters -- and the suggestion that support is increasing as actual votes near -- so important for Biden and his chances? Because non-whites have been the decisive voting bloc in each of the recent contested Democratic presidential primaries. In 2008, Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton because of his massive edge over her among black voters. Eight years later, Clinton beat Sanders because she crushed him among African Americans and Hispanics. And that process starts in South Carolina, the fourth state to vote in the nominating process -- the primary is set for February 29, 2020 -- and the first one where blacks have historically comprised a majority of voters. Polling done in the Palmetto State produces similar data to the CNN national poll. A Fox News poll conducted in early October showed Biden cruising with 41% compared to 12% for Warren and 10% for Sanders. Again, the breakdown of the vote by race is instructive: Whites Biden 24% Warren 20% Sanders 13% Blacks Biden 50% Sanders 9% Warren 8% Biden's path to the nomination starts with a win in South Carolina. If he can't win there, the race is over for him. What remains to be seen is whether black voters will stay with Biden if/when he loses Iowa and/or New Hampshire and Nevada in the days leading up the the first-in-the-south primary. If they do -- and there are no signs right now of any sort of erosion (in fact, quite the opposite!) -- and he wins South Carolina, Biden has an even money (and maybe better) chance at being the nominee. Given all of that, it's not an exaggeration to say that non-white voters hold Joe Biden's fate in their hands.
Where are Pete and the other the cadidates that dont have the black vote Cap?Hows things looking for them? Biden has had the black vote the entire time,Biden has had the lead the entire time.Coincidence?I think not.I told you 6 months ago dumb ass.
LOL? You think Biden is going to be the nominee? Why, because he lets black kids rub on his leg? It may not be Pete, but it sure as fuck won't be Biden and regardless the black vote is as irrelevant as it was 4 years ago, other than Trump will probably take a slightly bigger slice of that pie. Shake and tremble Tony, shake and tremble, because at this point your team has nothing. Maybe your new Iranian friends can take our Trump because other than that you're done.
Who will it be Cap? The black vote was irrelevant 4 years ago?Which democrat primary candidate got the majority of the black vote in 2016? And also 08,04,2000and 92?
You must not being paying attention to that pie Cap How John Bel Edwards won the Louisiana Governor's race Author: Chris McCrory Published: 1:41 PM CST November 17, 2019 "John Bel Edwards won with African American votes and African American turnout," political analyst Ron Faucheux said. "The 51% that Republicans got combined in the primary fell to 49% in the runoff, and that was largely due to increased African American turnout." Edwards spent much of his time in the closing days of the race in predominantly-black areas, trying to bring more black voters to the polls. During the last week of the campaign, Mayor LaToya Cantrell stumped for the incumbent governor. "This race really proved to be rural vs. urban, and Governor Edwards really performed so well in all of the urban areas," said pollster and analyst Greg Rigamer. The strategy worked overwhelmingly. By the time final results came in Saturday night, Edwards had secured about 99% of the African American vote, according to WWL-TV's election analysis By 9:45 p.m., WWL-TV called the election for Edwards because 93% of returns had come in, and the majority outstanding were from predominantly black districts, which had broken universally for the Democrat."
Nothing but a president with the worst 1st term approval rating in history,lost The House by the most votes ever a year ago,lost 23 of 33 Senate races a year ago ,black voters going to the polls more than they did during Obamas time and the top democrat leading in 17 of the last 20 polls,so yeah Im terrified.
It's difficult to say as the dem party is in such a state of chaos as they have their internal battle between establishment democrats, slightly left of center but not insane democrats, and the complete loon wing which is gaining strength every day. I still hold the position that the actual candidate has yet to appear on the stage.
1 candidate has been in the lead the entire time,thats not chaos Bloomberg and Patrick are the only candidates who haven't been onstage.Patrick is running for VP and Bloomberg has no chance because blacks hate his guts.The deadline to get on ballots has passed in many states for anyone else.
Okay. There has been a lot of water over the dam since my July 30 prediction - debates, some kind of caucus, poll upon poll, scandals, idiot blunders, etc. So let's revisit and re-examine my prediction for the Dem nominee. Although the numbers from Iowa will not be in until later today or so, it is clear from the overall atmospherics that Bernie knocked it out the park and that Bootyboy did very well. And things look extra good for them in New Hampshire as well. Therefore, my prediction for Dem nominee is: ELIZABETH WARREN .