1) quite suddenly, there's alot of bullish sentiment 2) complacency is setting in--the vix is below 40 3) The year got off to a positive start (a headfake) 4) there's irrational optimism about what Obama can do 5) there's an extreme lack of awareness regarding the deluge of companies that will go bankrupt in 2009 ___________________________________________________ IMHO, the S&P will hang aroud 600 if not break it to put in lower lows in 09. But this does not mean to take the risk and go in heavy short. Plenty of "HOPE" out there and I can see the forces trying to push the S&P to 1000 in the next few months. This is a "Depression" in modern times, so we will not see bread lines, dust bowls, etc. But what will continue is massive wealth on "Paper" being lost. IE: 401ks for 90% of Americans. The bullish sentiment is nothing but pure hope in Obama Nation. There are ZERO reasons IMHO to be bullish on the S&P 500 or the INDU using logics. Plenty of Reasons to be bullish on Hard Assets, except housing. The year got off to a light volume run up before Corporate Earnings and Retail Numbers come out. Zero substances to the Bear Rally. American's in General are idiots when it comes to what OBAMA will do. When they come to the understanding that unemployment will continue to move towards that 12% to 14% level, that Mortgages will not be saved, that OBAMA will not help their household, then Maybe we will see a Million Man March on the White House. Retail, Banks, etc will go under in mass quanities. The bankruptcy rate in 09 will send another shock to the 'confidence" of Wall Street. End Game is, Every man for himself in 09. Period. Either you work in an Industry that will make profits or you will be unemployed. 09 is going to be the full brunt of the storm. Obama will push through his stim. package. This will create jobs for some, will stimulate parts of the economy and there will be plenty of money to make off of OBAMA. However, either we turn to a nation that becomes a "Capitalistic Society" or a Radical Socalism. The Masses will choose Socalism, the few will choose Capitalism. The Masses will suffer and enter into poverty. The few will make millions upon millions and the Gap will widen between them. This is OBAMA NATION. Freeloaders will suffer, capitalist will flurish, even with higher taxes. Chose the side you want to be on and make your mark. Record year last year for me, this year I will blow away the numbers and tripple my wealth. Welcome to 09!
I disagree. It's not an "if", it's a "when". There will be a roll over. The retest will come far sooner than late summer. Anyone who thinks they can get long here, and not be very hurt in a few short months has some major pain ahead of them.
Yes. But in this particular case, it's much better to be in a little too early than a little too late.
It is better to cut losses. So why did you let your long plays in pot, mos, fcx go against you by -75% in a few short months? Face it--your long plays got crushed last year. No one should pay attention to a word you say, unless they want to lose big.
** rowshan update ** The S&P hit the upper end of its range around the 940 area. With sudden extreme bullish sentiment, this area looks to be a top, and downside action should commence later this week.