As per Joe's request, this thread will be a serious trading thread. The premise is that the S&P won't see 1000 in January. My reasoning is as follows: 1) quite suddenly, there's alot of bullish sentiment 2) complacency is setting in--the vix is below 40 3) The year got off to a positive start (a headfake) 4) there's irrational optimism about what Obama can do 5) there's an extreme lack of awareness regarding the deluge of companies that will go bankrupt in 2009 The S&P closed at 931.8. It will not see 1000 in January. It will see 850 before it sees 1000. Only serious replies will be answered. Looking forward to this being a long running thread.
I just did write it up. Maybe you want to pay particular attention as this thread will not contain long recommendations that plummet -75% in 6 months as your index (ie mos, fcx) did. Unfortunately, these are the types of comments I will not address going forward. This is a serious thread.
So you're saying the S&P 500 can't move up 7% from the present levels in the month of Jan? I'll take that bet. I like playing the odds.
I think you're mistaking CNBCs sentiment with serious investors sentiment. You need to add another option in the poll: The S&P will see 850 AND 1000 in Jan.
No, i'm definitely not. I'm never saying "can't" b/c the market can do anything. I'm saying I believe it won't. If you are interested in making $$ from your belief, the S&P Jan 1000 calls closed at 2 7/8. They expire 1/23. Obviously, i'm a seller of the Jan 1000 calls, as i don't think it will see 1000 by 1/23 or by 1/31. Selling Jan 1000 calls is 1 way of making $$ here.
I agree with you that it is irrational optimism. But the funny thing about irrational optimism is that it can remain irrational for quite a longer time than is expected. A 70 point move in ES is certainly plausable in the next few weeks. But I agree that a move lower is the ultimate play off round.