Discussion in 'Forex' started by olivierteper, Dec 30, 2005.
i 'd like to have your opiions about FOREXNEWS , especially for the intraday startegy
I've followed the forexnews chat room for about five years, off and on. The only thing I have learned is that you won't get any free rides there. If you're thinking of it as a "strategy," then just throw in the towel right now. Most of the more vocal traders make calls that are so wrong you could almost devise a strategy to do exactly the opposite and prosper.
There are probably four or five regulars there that I would even bother talking to -- and they mainly talk to themselves anyway. Not a very friendly lot. The rest are people trying to pass themselves off as pros/high rollers and accumulate followers and set themselves up as gurus and sell subscription services (or try to). The more credible traders aren't the more popular traders, from my observations.
Be careful, too, of people who want to suck you in and sell you their trading systems. The trouble is you can't really tell who is who unless your level of education/experience is sufficient. In the end, I would just stick to the basics and leave the rumor mongers and the sheep to themselves. All the better for your bottom line.
The analysis on the forexnews website is second rate, by the way, and their calendar often has errors. So, all in all, there are better places to get good information.
Trading is a lonely business, so we all try to find a community we can trust in which we can discuss ideas. Some seek out other traders for the comraderie. Some seek out other traders for education and knowledge. Some seek tips. My feeling is we are probably better off staying away during the planning of our trades and especially during the sessions we trade. Forexnews tends to suck one in and affect trading emotions.
Stay away from this!
You are clearly an expert yourself, so I think everyone will be grateful if you could provide us with a source for "first-rate" information on FX.
Sure thing. For starters, if you want free information you can find a great calendar on UBS' website, on the DailyFX website, FXStreet, or perhaps on your broker's own site (as long as it's not MG Financial). There is decent analysis -- both fundamental and technical -- on the DailyFX website which rivals the best subcription services. You can also find good technical analysis for the longer term on the Mizuho Corporate Bank website. Nicole Elliott maintains the charts, I believe. There is a great deal of analysis, calendar information and other information out there on the internet that is better than Forexnews. And once again, stay away from the chat rooms/threads! Oh, one other thing. Forexnews is often late with their daily analysis and it is poorly written. There, now I'm really being an arse!
I'm no expert, but I do know Forexnews because I have experienced nothing but mediocrity, at best. I don't believe I deserve the sarcasm, as my post was not to show people who are new to the game how much I know, but to save them from the agony of being distracted, manipulated or otherwise deflected from their trading efforts.
Seems like Misha has taken my criticism of Forexnews personally. I was only giving my opinion. Perhaps Misha could recommend more credible news sources. Should he not have any, one can always subscribe to Bloomberg, Reuters or Thomson...for a hefty price.
I'll give Misha the last word, since I'm obviously not welcome.
The sarcasm was not intended personnaly against you, and I apologize if it came across that way.
I still absolutely not agree with your points. Obviously there is probably higher quality institutional subscription services out there, like 4Cast to name one. However most retail traders dont have the $$$ to pay for these and are left to choose among free services. As you know internet is flooded with fake experts, gurus and pure crooks. Why bash people who do a good job do it honestly?
As you may also know, Ashraf Laidi, the chief analyst at Forexnews is constantly quoted in the Financial Times, WSJ, NYT, writes Futures manazine and appears smth like once per week on CNBC and Bloomberg TV. Do you think, given their reach and financial resources they would invite someone with "mediocre analysis"?
I also used to find contributions by Jes Black very informative, while he was still at forexnews. As far as I know he is running his own analysis service now, and pretty successfully.
With regards to the sources you mentioned. FXStreet have no proprietary analysis of their own, they use others' including Forexnews. I find DailyFX OK, but profoundly unoriginal. Kathy Lien's analysis is pretty flat and, in my opinion, lacking new ideas(I don't see her quoted much anyway). Whenever she ventures into stuff like "correlation studies" the lack of proper quantitative training becomes very apparent (Ashraf has the same weakness).
Finally, I am not quote sure why you're still reading forexnews after all these years of disliking it ??
Okay, I take back what I said about giving Misha the last word...unless he wants it again.
I will respectfully defer to Misha's post on Forexnews' analysis (especially the point about Mr. Black, although he's not there anymore), but take exception to the following:
(1) Being quoted in the Financial Times or on CNBC necessarily confers authority or credibility, and
(2) That being original is what works or is what is desired in FX analysis.
The main points I was trying to make:
(1) Timely, accurate and well written analysis from different sources is important (whether or not it is proprietary), and
(2) Stay away from Forexnews discussion forums! The few credible participants that would make me want to stay are simply drowned out by the system hawkers, charlatans and socialites.
Misha, I have read nearly all of your posts on other threads and respect the breadth of your observations and opinons. If I was presumptuous, I apologize. To answer your last question, I occasionally browse the Forexnews website out of perverse curiousity. Part of that curiousity is to see who the new suckers are for sharks like Silverbuilt, Joe Fontana, and the like. I make it part of my business plan to keep tabs on the FX community, besides. Judging from your posts, I'm sure you understand.
Olivier, you have already observed how subjective this business can be. Ultimately you'll have to make up your own mind. In this spirit, why not give Forexnews a go for awhile and see how you like it...? Before you do, however, make sure you have a trading model and business plan in place, stick to your guns, and filter out the noise. Otherwise you'll end up wasting precious time flitting from personality to personality on their forums, looking for tips and handouts and black box trading systems.
well the forum is open to everyone. it mainly is a place to exchange ideas with other Forex traders you will run by some bad advice but you can also pick up some useful info and good trade ideas if you are such an expert how come you have never posted any trade ideas under your name.
I read forexnews for a laugh. Ashraf Laidi is so immensely and eternally dollar bearish that he never reports from a clear perspective, and because of this, is often wrong and misleading.
I guess you started following currencies/forexnews only recently. If you were reading the site around 1999-2000 you would probably find Ashraf "eternally" dollar bullish.
Right by all counts. I never called myself an expert and I have posted under two names, both of which I do not use here for obvious reasons. (Have you been talking to Misha?) One trade I remember calling clearly, before even taking it, invited derision from just about everyone online at the time. Although the trade turned out to yield a gain of 8R, why would I continue to call my trades with all the silliness going on? Can you imagine what would happen when I was wrong? You know exactly what I'm talking about.
I will say that you are one of the few people on the forum that I look for when I pass through. When I get a chance, I read as many of your posts as I have time for.
Forexjunkie is one of the best on the forum and certainly has experience in many different instruments.
There. I said it. But for the newbie, it's a dangerous place. Like I said, you won't know the difference between the wannabe's trying to amass a following and the real thing unless you have the knowledge and experience to know the difference. FXJ, I'm sure you will agree. It is also not a very friendly place for the newbie. Some of the more experienced traders are downright rude to them -- I'm sure you will agree with that, too. And, the more experienced traders tend to get flamed by the wannabe's. You are an excellent example of that yourself. I remember you having recently taken (within the past year and a half) a long leave of absence from the forum because of someone flaming you.
Also, I maintain that using Forexnews as a strategy, especially an intraday one, is just about the craziest thing you could do. Using the forum simply for trade ideas is a very questionnable call because while people are making calls left and right, they are often not talking about what's important -- such as risk, exit strategies, etc. They merely make their calls on entry (often after the fact) and exits, give some half-baked reason, and leave it at that. If someone takes trades off of this info because the one making the call sounds intelligent or has newbies falling all over themselves to kiss his (or her) butt, that someone will get what they deserve in the long run. (I double dare you to disagree with me on that. )
What am I doing about it? I'm setting up my own secure website and will invite people of various levels of experience and ability to post their trading journals there. They will be carefully chosen with three criteria:
(1) They must have an actual business plan that adequately demonstrates their sincerity and commitment to trading;
(2) That business plan must explain a sound methodology with a well articulated process for planning trades, a sound trading model that includes an exit strategy, and solid rules for risk management;
(3) They must have the discipline to maintain a trading journal for all trades, demo and live, for a period of not less than three months.
I won't invite people I think are rude or who have something to sell -- unless they are fund managers who contribute meaningfully to the site and are registered/credentialed professionals. But I will take no compensation for the site. Having said all that, it's not up yet. This is just my solution to the problem of fora like Forexnews.
Last thing: DO NOT THINK THAT YOU CAN GO TO FOREXNEWS AND MAKE MONEY. That is madness. Get a plan, trade the plan, and make it adaptive to changes in the markets. If you want to trade off of tips and the calls of others, why not just give your money to Forexjunkie and let him trade it for you? You'll probably be better off that way.
Separate names with a comma.