As the pits are starting to die down, I'm beginning to shift some (most) of my trading to screen-based and trade that. I'm still trading Hogs, but got into the Forex game now that my son has taught me it (he trades in the Eurodollar pit and CBOT Treasury pits exclusively). I'm going to try and post my trades here, mainly speculative and totally discretionary. I'll be using technical analysis such as Stochastics, CCI, and Bollinger Bands. Today, I started off trading tonight on the USD/JPY, GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs. Currently positioned flat, due to little movement and volume tonight. Will update daily. Please enjoy and let me know what you think.
Put on some trades overnight, will try to monitor as I drift to bed while watching some TV. Basically long USD/JPY and USD/CHF and short EUR. Overall long the dollar overnight.
True, I had the USD/JPY stops close because I wasn't too keen on them (already got stopped on on it 114.10). I adjusted the other stop and the EUR/USD stops. All I have on now is Short 100,000 EUR 1.4413 (even), Long EUR/JPY at 164.53 (working in my favor), Short 100 USD/JPY at 114.18 (moving away from me a little, stop higher at 114.35), long 300,000 USD/CHF at about 1.1569 (working better now). Good night and will update in the morn.
you probably already know this, if your: short eur/usd long eur/jpy = long usd/jpy and short usd/jpy your hedged, the only unhedged position is usd.chf it can work on a breakout of the hedge, as the stops get nailed and the price breaksout. But during a quiet session, both sides of the hedge will get hit.
I got out of the EUR at a 2 pip loss since there was a cross confirmed by MACD (good thing, its now at 44.93/95) Out of EUR/JPY at 164.40 (stopped out) Stopped out on USD/CHF as well. Now have a $600 loss, trying to make it up.
you will find that FX price action is chaotic in the shorter term timeframes. only with volatility will small stops work. During volatile times, market structure and participant bias becomes evident. I wouldn't focus in on the loss so much, it could have been a 600K loss. orderflow is invariant, meaning banks and corps that need to do business will create chaotic orderflow.
You're right. My son does scalping on the Merc, which I assume is more transparent and flowing than doing it OTC. I might have to try FX Futures sometime. Just closed a EUR/JPY trade for a profit.
looking at: 1) oil...up 2) stocks...upper end of ATR 3) bonds ...bottom end of ATR 4) dollar ...upper end of ATR implies ..a dollar bearish wave.