we had a good little recovery in the dollar (from 1.2589 to 1.2408 EUR/USD). though it appears now the market is taking a wait and see approach. - waiting to see what will happen with oil prices. - with the fallout from Katrina. - with interest rates. anyone concur? can anyone add to this list?
Waiting for Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, and George Soros to be squeezed out of the currency market. Does anyone know how much money Warren Buffet is down shorting the dollar? I would estimate over a billion dollars.
I been a little bit cautious about posting a full-blown "EUR/USD meltdown" post. was gonna do it yesterday but didn't. EUR/USD HAS been melting down though - I suspect it will continue. crashing through 1.2400 will be a confirmation point. I think it will continue moving down to at least 1.2200 after that. It's not all just the USD. The euro has been showing weakness: may have to do with this China trade deal...? My EUR/GBP and EUR/AUD short positions have been melting off suddenly. current = 1.2410
I think the EUR/USD will fall also, most likely to around the level that SkalpZ hinted at. There seems to be a resurgance of hope now that the levee has been fixed in Nawlins, and the possiblity of interest rate hikes back on the horizon. Does anyone see the EUR/USD going to 1.17?
*sKaLpZ jams his hand up* I do IF the "nations flooding the US oil/gas market with their oil reserves" scenario takes hold and oil drops back to around $50 as a result. better stated: I see the price dropping nearer to 1.17 in that case. Can't they try to mine oil in Nawlins? like, turn that whole region into one huge oil-drilling research faciilty? or maybe they could find a way to squeeze some oil out of them gator hides.
Buffett has been short dollar since EURUSD has been in the 1.00-1.12s. So he isnt down but actually up. However in the beginning of the year as they use unrealized profits it was a loss as dollar went from 1.3600 to 1.20s.
Thanks for clearing that up. I thought Buffet had been shorting the dollar all the way to 1.36. Do you know if he's neutral now, meaning he's not shorting dollars currently?
They need to go into the French Quarter with a bulldozer and wrecking ball (well several for that matter) and demolish that whole place and start building an oil rig there and take back the oil reserves that we need so desparately. I think that Oil/gas could eventually head back to around $50, but it won't probably be until at least the end of the year. Maybe the US is trying to squeeze out the people with the gas guzzling hogs and force them into buying something more environmentally friendly.
I know he's still keeping dollar short positions because his view on the currency has never changed (budget, trade deficit) and his trade act as a hedge to his current investments at HB.