Quote from: rateesquad Moderator 03-23-07 03:07 AM How do you derive at your analysis? Hope and Dreams? Indicators? Gut feelings? Praying to God ? ______________________ Hi! Rateesquad. Good questions! Only one of the above: Indicators, plus two more: 1) Price direction 2) Personal observations. INDICATORS: MACD and Larry Williams %R â Both classics. PRICE DIRECTION: You go with it. You do not fight it. Generally if it is trending up you want to go long, you do not want to be short; if it is trending down you want to go short, you do not want to stay long. It is not my intention to insult anybodyâs intelligence by repeating basic things. There are thousands of bright here at ET and somewhere else. But itâs worth repeating these basics. Just imagine if people just got out of long positions if price directions was definitely DOWN, or hung in a long position as long as the price direction was definitely UP! It is being said ad nauseam that price reflects everything: fundamentals, hope, uncertainty, greed, facts, release of data, impending release of data, post release of dataâ¦. Etc. etc. PERSONAL OBSERVATIONS: A..hah!!!! This is muddy and fallible since it is human. But after so many years and ups and downs on this arena, the authorâs personal observations and beliefs are these, (not all of course): MACD: is labeled as a LAGGING indicator, an it is. It will never give you the low or the high of the move. But its components will give you the direction of the trend, specially the third component: the signal (9) or smaller number if you want (6, 5, etc.) In general if the MACD is above zero, on any time frame, the issue (in our case the pair) is trending UP, unequivocally Why not go or stay LONG? And if we have a short position, why not get out? And vice versa, when the MACD is below zero. This reasoning is not new. Gerald Appel is preaching this since he invented it in 1960. The author of this thread for years has gotten incredible results trading DOW Stocks (weekly time frame) and commodities (Daily) just on this angle: Long whenever the fast line (the signal) crosses above zero and OUT on two premises: 1) if the fast line reverses below zero, or when the fast line crosses below the slow line, always MACD above zero of course. The MACD will not give you the extremes, but riding on it for a while could be profitable. WILLIAMS %R: (Thanks! Larry for this powerful invention). To be brief, %R zig zags too much and it is a problem. But since it is contained on 0 (or -1) to minus 100, it reveals, graphically, extremes. Not that the extremes will stop, but reversals form over -20 to below -20, or below -80 to above -80, gives you an excuse or powerful incentive to bail out and realize your profits. If you confide on MACD alone some of the profits will evaporate. Certainly, any crossover above or below -50 is very significative. Sorry, it went too long. Forex signals posted in this thread should be taken as an illustration only, and not a method of trading. If it was implied otherwise, that was an unintentional oversight. One thing the author did not realize is that Daily in this case is a misnomer. It should be called 24 Hour signals. Nevertheless he took couple of very profitable trades. One (closed) LONG the EURUSD. This pair still trending up, but he chickened when %R crossed below -20. Still LONG the AUDUSD until ditto on %R. He hopes that crossover does not happen while sleeping. Best! mF
Could you explain step by step how to read your spreadsheet,etc. For example, you've got 2 lines for each currency - what does that mean?
asked this noob question elswhere,possibly misunderstood.When preparing taxes for fx,is it each trade (stocks-uhg)or P/L as in futures.Thanx,great thread,FX gets bad rap here generally.