Forex position trading using NPP

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Oct 21, 2019.

  1. expiated

    expiated

    Something else I will be watching for this week... Can GBPJPY close above 141.52?
     
    #11     Oct 21, 2019
  2. Turveyd

    Turveyd

    There slower than they used to be, which if that's all you've known and I guess you swing trade and not day trade then that's likely better anyway.
     
    #12     Oct 21, 2019
  3. Turveyd

    Turveyd

    Agreed, 1 day Forex will be king again and I shall return, sometimes indexs are crap and it's about Oil aswell or maybe even gold, always check which market is better suiting you at the time.
     
    #13     Oct 21, 2019
    remogul92 likes this.
  4. expiated

    expiated

    Monday / October 21, 2019 / 3:40 p.m. PST

    USDJPY's instantaneous (zero lag) moving average is hooking upward as the second daily candlestick of the week begins to form, so I'm unfortunately not seeing any follow through at the moment.
     
    #14     Oct 21, 2019
  5. expiated

    expiated

    Tuesday / October 22, 2019 / 2:50 a.m. PST

    My preference would be to buy USDCHF below 0.9757. Nonetheless, my lower time frame charts suggest that at 0.9887, the pair has already made a wholesale reversal to the north, so I have gone ahead and entered a long position.

    But there is no confirmation from the instantaneous moving average on my daily chart yet, so I will be watching to see how things unfold to determine whether I should trust my one- and five-minute chart signals more than the daily, or if I should trust the daily more than the lower time frames for judging exactly when to execute trades based on position-type trade analysis.
     
    #15     Oct 22, 2019
  6. expiated

    expiated

    USDCHF turned against me for a spell, and right now I just barely got out with a profit...

    ScreenHunter_6996 Oct. 22 08.26.jpg

    But another glace at my lower time frame charts suggests that if I remained in the trade the rate would ultimately start rising again, so I will still be continuing to follow its progress to answer the question that appears at the top of this post.
     
    #16     Oct 22, 2019
  7. expiated

    expiated

    Tuesday / October 22, 2019 / 8:45 a.m. PST

    I hope I am seeing what I think I am seeing, which is that this journal is helping me to differentiate exactly which aspects of my lower time frame charts apply almost exclusively to intraday trading, and which might potentially apply primarily to position trading.

    USDJPY's instantaneous (zero lag) moving average on the daily chart is still hooking upward, but the lower time frame charts suggest that this is within the range of flexibility rates must be given to fluctuate with and against the dominant trend.

    As the week opened, the top of that range was at 108.92. It then dropped down to 108.71, which USDJPY hit a few hours ago. This means that theoretically, the pair should continue to drop, irrespective of the daily chart's zero lag trend line. So as stated in the above post, I will be following its progress to determine if I should trust the daily charts more than the lower time frames for determining exactly when to execute trades based on position-type trade analysis, or not.

    (At this time I am once again short USDJPY in that I am currently assigning the lower time frame charts more credence.)
     
    #17     Oct 22, 2019
  8. expiated

    expiated

    Tuesday / October 22, 2019 / 9:30 a.m. PST

    This is a somewhat aggressive trade in that the instantaneous moving average on the daily chart is not yet hooking south (it's neutral at this point) but I went ahead shorted EURJPY at 120.99 with a take-profit target of 117.45.

    Though EURUSD looks like it might be on its way down based on the lower time frame charts, the zero lag moving average on the daily chart has yet to evidence a reversed hinge. But even if such a signal were present, I don't know that I would short the pair in that I would have much preferred that it had done all of the this above the 1.1195 level.
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2019
    #18     Oct 22, 2019
  9. expiated

    expiated

    Tuesday / October 22, 2019 / 1:30 p.m. PST

    I will have to consider shorting GBPJPY if it pulls back above 140.47 and GBPUSD if it pulls back above 1.2892.
     
    #19     Oct 22, 2019
  10. expiated

    expiated

    Tuesday, October 22, 2019 / 2:45 p.m. PST

    As the next 24-hour market cycle gets started, here’s what I’m looking at on my daily charts…

    Even though USDJPY’s zero-lag moving average is still angled north, candlesticks are beginning to form beneath the indicator I use to confirm reversals. (I am short this pair, so hopefully this is a positive omen that the asset will finally follow through on heading south.)

    EURJPY’s instantaneous moving average is now decidedly bearish. (I have already taken some money off the table with this pair. Hopefully it'll be all profit from here on down, God willing.)

    The three Cable pairs have all made their turns now, but the two that were long-term bearish are now bullish, and the one that was long-term bullish is now bearish, so I can’t really trust them to stay on course as long as I might have had their overall bias/sentiment not changed.

    EURUSD has flipped as well, but again, I would have rather it did so above 1.1194.
     
    #20     Oct 22, 2019