One, because price would be arbitraged. If your broker quotes 50 offer and the real mkt is 55 bid, you could arbitrage the five pips. Two, the volume isn’t volume.
I disagree with the theory and concept. When you quote "experts", well is that like GS placing a buy on TSLA several months ago, I would have to check my blotter for the exact date but, we shorted it, and are still there. Or is it like D. Gartman the worlds greatest fade indicator in the universe. P, please understand, when you talk about VOL in Spot Currency, you are talking about tick VOL as opposed to actual VOL per trade. So one Uptick counts as one VOL count, this is why, when you look at a Spot Currency price chart it always lines up, more or less with the VOL. Now "True", "Useful" VOL is for example when you look at an Illiquid Stock, like a penny, etc. At some point you could actually see that the vol and price might line up for a while, then, as volume "per Trade" thins out, and the price keeps moving higher, you will see the VOL go back against the price, why? Because actual shares traded are dropping, even though the price is moving higher. This gives insight into the "Move". Not so with Spot Currency, for every tick higher on the price chart, there is a tick of green VOL, and the reverse is true for a downward move. So it tells you nothing as to the nature of the move. In Spot Currency, the reality is, that VOL tells you nothing that you can't already see on a price chart. So with that having been said, on an Institutional Spot Currency platform you can see the volume per trade, but this data is limited to your Hub, so you might be able to see why price stalls at some point, for example I saw a Yard go off at 5Mio a pop, this was a prearranged transaction on the EUR/USD between two of the PB's on my hub at the time. Price stalled because this transaction was going off between x price and x price, and since these two PB's were connected to a general aggregate feed, (which they are compensated for, but that is another story), this was reflected in retail feeds across the globe. So then, once the order was filled, price continued on its way. I was fascinated by the size, but it really told me nothing about the future direction of price. Anyway, your statement here lacks logic and coherence, and honestly makes no sense. "It is not that high volume means strength or anything simplistic like that it is very subjective and like everything in Nature effort [volume] and result [price] should be proportionate." The whole point of using VOL is to tell strength, to see the "conviction" of the "Axe" and other large players. You cannot do that in Spot Currency. By you own admission your view of VOL and that of supposed "Ex Spurts" cannot be Quantified, thus it is illogical, and thus has no place in a sound trading plan. My reply here is not to start an argument, but better, to warn the Rooks so that they know the realities of how this all works, not to denigrate, but to put together a logical and coherent response to misinformation. The Ever Informed VIPER
let the rooks know both sides they only have to see my journal to see how it works https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/trading-the-momentum-cycle.322661/page-25
There are two types of persistence: being persistent at what works and being persistent at what doesn't. I feel that our persistence to make this guy change his beliefs is of the second kind PS: Making somebody defend his position just makes it stronger. It doesn't matter if it's right or wrong, it's pure psychology.
Bwahahahahahah, almost made me spit my coffvevvee on the monitor, good one M. Mrs. VIPER, is always on me about getting on any forums, my Staid clients also. But its like watching a Snake eating a Trading Rat, I just can't help but look. The Ever Reptilian VIPER
The root of CG is that the desire to believe one is functional outweighs the damage done by acting contrary to self-interest.
There is a simpler and practical definition: one's mind follows one's action. It's enough to do something accidentially to believe that there was a purpose in it and to continue doing it in the future. It becomes even stronger if you ever need to defend it
D, I know that Dunning-Kruger Effect is not in the DSM, but i'm tellin ya, from the time I was a hatchling with my egg tooth still place, I have seen, well how can I put it, "below average" intellect, thinking they are the smartest guys in the room. Even when I was a kid, I looked at adults, with reverence and respect, sure that they had more wisdom, experience and intellect than I did, then they opened their mouth, well so much for that. To this day, when I walk into a room of Traders I "feel" everyone is not only profitable as I am, but no doubt even more so. Until they open their mouths. In fact I am going to buy a Dunning-Kruger Effect T shirt and wear it to the next trading event, I think it will be a hoot. OK no more off topic, I promise, maybe. The Ever Wondering Aloud VIPER