Monday October 31, 2005 EUR-USD 1.2067. While above 1.2058 - 1.2021 zone a corrective dip could test 1.2095 or 1.2119 or 1.2142. After which it should resume his downtrend. USD-CHF 1.2803. It may attempt a test higher to 1.2816 after which weakness may set it to a drift down to below 1.2723 limit. USD-JPY 115.67. It should test 116.23 area after which a sell off down to 115.28 or extended to 114.88 area is expected. GBP-USD 1.7743. While below 1.7778 - 1.7801 it might drop to 1.7696 or below 1.7650 zone. EUR-CHF 1.5452. Market should hold major support at 1.5421 before rising towards 1.5468 or even 1.5485 limit. EUR-JPY 139.57. Market should pop up towards 140.05 or 140.53 this bullish scenario would be damaged if 139.42 - 139.15 zone is broken, a severe break down could then occur. EUR-GBP 0.6801. Decline should be supported around 0.6787 - 0.6773 zone for rally to above 0.6839. A clear break of 0.6773 will damage this expected rally. AUD-USD 0.7497. Market should meet resistance at 0.7522. We expect then an extended move down to 0.7490 -0.7422 area. USD-CAD 1.1778. Current rise seems to be over near 1.1786 or 1.1817 for a retracement towards 1.1754 - 1.1735 area.
Tuesday November 1, 2005 EUR-USD 1.1991. It should register further gains to 1.2064 while 1.1943 caps downside attempts. Stop loss below 1.1895 zone. USD-CHF 1.2887. While below 1.2949 it is more likely to fall further towards 1.2835 or 1.2804. Premature rise above 1.2949 could see it rising above 1.3010 zone. USD-JPY 116.40. Current rise seems to be over near 116.44 or 116.73 for a retracement towards 116.14 - 115.97 area. GBP-USD 1.7698. Overall structure is bearish. Decelerating momentum could attract it towards supports at 1.7679 or 1.7639. Major support is clustered around 1.7597 limit. EUR-CHF 1.5453. Preferred outlook is for a drift down to below 1.5426. Resistances are at 1.5453 and 1.5457. A rise above 1.5471 would delay but not abort this expected fall. EUR-JPY 139.59. It is likely to attempt to below 139.06 while below 139.59 - 139.59 area. Rise above 139.86 would dampen this bearish expectation. EUR-GBP 0.6775. Current fall is near an end of wave around 0.6754 - 0.6757 zone, a rally should then procede to above 0.6789 or 0.6797. Fall below 0.6743 would cancel this scenario. AUD-USD 0.7481. Current fall is near an end of wave around 0.7438 - 0.7455 zone, a rally should then procede to above 0.7502 or 0.7514. Fall below 0.7432 would cancel this scenario. USD-CAD 1.1822. Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.1837 or 1.1902 if support around 1.1796 hold. After which a pullback to 1.1796 - 1.1776 zone is possible.
Wednesday November 2, 2005 EUR-USD 1.2018. It should test 1.2051 area after which a sell off down to 1.1984 or extended to 1.1950 area is expected. USD-CHF 1.2881. Our preferred outlook is for a drift down to 1.2853 or below 1.2824. Resistances are at 1.2881 and 1.2888. A rise above 1.2917 would delay but not abort this expected fall. USD-JPY 116.73. Current rise should end around 116.63 or 116.88. Objectives of this downmove are 116.47 or 116.22. A rise above 117.04 is again bullish. GBP-USD 1.7653. Current fall is near an end of wave around 1.7590 - 1.7626 zone, a rally should then procede to above 1.7689 or 1.7716. Fall below 1.7545 would cancel this scenario. EUR-CHF 1.5483. A corrective/consolidation activity between 1.5462 and 1.5515 is likely for a while. EUR-JPY 140.32. Current rise seems to be over near 140.34 or 140.62 for a retracement towards 140.06 - 139.91 area. EUR-GBP 0.6808. It should trade higher to 0.6824 while 0.6795 or 0.6788 offers support. Stop loss below 0.6780 zone. AUD-USD 0.7443. It should register further gains to 0.7472 while 0.7427 caps downside attempts. Stop loss below 0.7410 zone. USD-CAD 1.1752. There is bearish potential for a fall to 1.1710 or 1.1667 while 1.1800 - 1.1821 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 1.1800 or 1.1821 is expected.
Thursday November 3, 2005 EUR-USD 1.2073. Current rise seems to be over near 1.2079 or 1.2109 for a retracement towards 1.2048 - 1.2031 area. USD-CHF 1.2780. Market should meet resistance at 1.2810. We expect then an extended move down to 1.2732 -1.2689 area. USD-JPY 116.87. Current rise is now over. Objectives of this downmove are at 116.63 or 116.38. A rise above 117.22 is again bullish. GBP-USD 1.7769. It should trade higher to 1.7819 while 1.7722 or 1.7697 offers support. Stop loss below 1.7672 zone. EUR-CHF 1.5430. It looks set to visit further lower territory down to around 1.5400. Its corrective attempts should fail ahead of 1.5444 or 1.5459. Stop loss above 1.5474 zone. EUR-JPY 141.12. Currently uptrend should end around 141.77 - 141.44 area. A correction down to below 140.50 is expected. A rise above 141.76 will abort the expected correction. EUR-GBP 0.6794. Decline should be supported around 0.6783 - 0.6772 zone for rally to above 0.6828. A clear break of 0.6772 will damage this expected rally. AUD-USD 0.7427. It should stay in a range trading between 0.7401 and 0.7449 for a while. USD-CAD 1.1798. Corrective dips should ideally halt near 1.1789 or 1.1771 for one more thrust upwards towards 1.1811 - 1.1833 area or 1.1869 in extention. Fall below 1.1753 puts it back on a downward path.
Just curious, Nico - Besides the first day, every one of your AUD/USD predictions were wrong. I didn't bother to check the other pairs because I've been in an Aussie mood this week.
Friday November 4, 2005 EUR-USD 1.1944. Market should meet resistance at 1.1987. We expect then an extended move down to 1.1939 -1.1814 area. USD-CHF 1.2919. It should trade higher to 1.2979 while 1.2876 or 1.2847 offers support. Stop loss below 1.2817 zone. USD-JPY 117.22. A correction down to 116.88 or lower is now expected from 117.31 or 117.47. A break above 117.73 is needed to turn bullish. GBP-USD 1.7708. There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery towards 1.7751 or even 1.7769. Supports at 1.7702 and 1.7671 zone. EUR-CHF 1.5432. It may meet resistance in 1.5432 - 1.5432 zone for a drift down to below 1.5402 zone. EUR-JPY 140.00. There is bearish potential for a fall to 139.51 while 140.33 - 140.58 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 140.58 or 140.83 is expected. EUR-GBP 0.6745. Market should meet resistance at 0.6763. We expect then an extended move down to 0.6724 -0.6691 area. AUD-USD 0.7394. Current fall is near an end of wave around 0.7363 - 0.7370 zone, a rally should then procede to above 0.7413 or 0.7423. Fall below 0.7352 would cancel this scenario. USD-CAD 1.1815. A corrective/consolidation activity between 1.1768 and 1.1864 is likely for a while.
I read your comments on USDCHF yesterday and decided to stick to my guns. I thought that the selloff in USDCHF was way overdone. I was counting on the ECB not raising rates and Trichet coming out with less hawkish statements. Long 6 at 1.2788, 2 at 1.2799, 1 at 1.2819, 1 at 1.2840, and 1 at 1.2855. Now waiting for Non Farm Payroll. Looking to add more if USDCHF continues to rally. Targeting 1.3140 and perhaps 1.3225. 1.2694 from OCT 28 is probably the end of a flat ABC correction. If it all works out, then Cheesecake Factory here I come to celebrate. Please continue to post your commentary. I won't agree all the time. Afterall, I've been doing this for years.
Monday November 7, 2005 EUR-USD 1.1822. Market should not go lower than 1.1725. After this move down it should go up to 1.1812 - 1.1873 area. USD-CHF 1.3058. Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.3170 or 1.3223 if support around 1.3003 hold. After which a pullback to 1.3003 - 1.2962 zone is possible. USD-JPY 118.29. Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 118.85 or 119.12 if support around 117.92 hold. After which a pullback to 117.92 - 117.72 zone is possible. GBP-USD 1.7514. It is likely to attempt to below 1.7305 while below 1.7514 - 1.7562 area. Rise above 1.7666 would dampen this bearish expectation. EUR-CHF 1.5439. A corrective/consolidation activity between 1.5418 and 1.5477 is likely for a while. EUR-JPY 139.85. Market should pop up towards 140.66 or 141.46 this bullish scenario would be damaged if 139.45 - 139.30 zone is broken, a severe break down could then occur. EUR-GBP 0.6750. It should see a sell off to below 0.6736 while 0.6763 area curtails its upside. A break beyond 0.6770 will abort the downside. AUD-USD 0.7331. It is likely to attempt nearer support at 0.7296 for extending further to below 0.7260 while below 0.7331 - 0.7365 area. Rise above 0.7383 would dampen this bearish expectation. USD-CAD 1.1835. Corrective dips should ideally halt near 1.1807 or 1.1777 for one more thrust upwards towards 1.1851 - 1.1894 area or 1.1954 in extention. Fall below 1.1747 puts it back on a downward path.
do you trade real money in FX sir ? what does your commentary here mean? you list some price as being support ... but then list am area it might go to ... problem is the market is in that area now or very close to it ... so does that mean you would stand aside and do nothing in EUR - USD at this moment ? -11-06-05 06:47 PM- Monday November 7, 2005 EUR-USD -1.1822. Market should not go lower than 1.1725. After this move down it should go up to 1.1812 - 1.1873 area.-
Damn. We agree on USDCHF. I'm not sure if I like that. Long another 1 at 1.2900 and 1.2930 after the release of Non Farm Payroll. I know how you got 1.3170. Because of the Fibonacci projection.