Forever Bull Market

Discussion in 'Trading' started by v-shape-0DTE, Sep 14, 2023.

  1. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    AWVAP = Anchored VolumeWeightedAverage, many funds use it for their program buys/sells.

    But no green close, and even with the selloff after gap up part of the gap is still open. At some point it will need to be filled.

    I looked at daily chart and yes last time Monday was a down close was 6/26/23 but take a look at these 6:-

    ! QQQ Mondays.png

    Note only the most recent two circled were during this current down trend. Bull and bear trends act differently from each other.
     
    #151     Oct 27, 2023
  2. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Well when rates started from 0 after all it takes a while for it to have effect.

    Anyway so-called magnificent seven have holding the overall market up. If they fail ....
     
    #152     Oct 27, 2023
  3. Specterx

    Specterx

    Both reasonable statements/observations, but also well-known, longstanding, and thus likely fully priced in.

    The bottom line is that large-cap indices can't sustain downward momentum for long without meaningful fresh (non-priced-in) catalysts - and if the indices can't go down, then they'll go up due to buybacks and automatic purchase activity from dividend reinvestments, 401(k)s and so on.

    Right now in the Nasdaq is about the clearest bull setup you'll see in markets: a seven-month 50% rally to just below ATHs followed by a three-month, 10% correction attributed to a collection of mostly irrelevant or bullshit narratives - "rising yields" and more recently "Gaza war". There are no guarantees, but the odds strongly favor a major mark-up phase over the next 8-12 months. A negative shock (e.g. recession, huge spike in yields, or massive government spending cuts) could always occur and knock the markets off-course, but it seems at least equally likely that the stated period will see positive shocks/news - such as inflation coming down more sharply than expected, and the Fed opening the door to lower rates.
     
    #153     Oct 27, 2023
  4. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    You can be the hero and catch the falling knife. I'll wait for some inkling of a reversal.

    Well actually no I won't. I just trade 'em as I see 'em intra day.
     
    #154     Oct 27, 2023
    piezoe likes this.
  5. piezoe

    piezoe

    Having dabbled in markets longer than most of you have been alive, I can assure everyone that there will be simultaneous prediction of both unending prosperity and pending doom ad infinitum. The inertia of global markets is tremendous. Cataclysmic events might happen, but are unlikely. A meteor the size of the moon could strike the Indian Ocean. But nowadays that would be seen coming. We'd launch fusion bomb missiles to alter it's path toward Eastern Arkansas or some other useless asset. However it's the little fracases and deteriorating conditions in multiple places around the World adding-up to something significant that are much harder to deal with, as for example 50% of the U.S. House of Representatives gone stark raving mad. . . These are the things that can eventually bring an end to good times.
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2023
    #155     Oct 27, 2023
  6. destriero

    destriero


    What exactly is the point of ignoring magnitude? 3/5 days green and a 2.25% loss for the week.

    You're a fucking idiot.
     
    #156     Oct 27, 2023
    Overnight likes this.
  7. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    #157     Oct 27, 2023
  8. #158     Oct 28, 2023
  9. Overnight

    Overnight

    Perhaps a more important question for medium-term traders is how long is the interval between them? They're getting shorter...The time between these last two is just about a year now.
     
    #159     Oct 28, 2023
    Darc likes this.
  10. Darc

    Darc

    Good Morning/Evening Overnight

    That's a good point you make. The Market has sped up.

    Have a good Evening/Day.
     
    #160     Oct 28, 2023