ralph, not to get too far off topic; but that bubble in the 80's was not much less than the last run up. i remember shopping centers going belly up, foreclosures, etc. the same as currently. to me this is as if its a rerun. the only thing that is different is we have the internet letting people get all worked up with their fears. sure, this one went up even more one can argue and the financial system made it worse; but it will scrape bottom for 5 years and then recover like it never happened. quite honestly, unlike DR. Z; my commercial and residential real estate is sucking right now. 50% of my tenants are late and in some type of trouble. the ones that are doing fine are carrying the others and to say that i'm not worried would be lying. the stress of evicting and collecting is terrible. despite this fact i know things will work out in time. i have read taleb and am quite aware of black swans. imo, the swan is in the house now and i have the gun. thank God there are many people out there who cannot see the big picture.
I wasn't referring to Black Swans really. Fooled by Randomness, as its title implies, in part deals w/folks who are wildly successful and think they're shit doesn't stink. In reality, they just happen to be in the right place at the right time.
i think there is going to be another bublle in property. coming up already. Just big enough so that financial system can be saved. Do not assume that only genuine buyers participate though... Once financial system is off the hook, then artificial support will be gone at least partially, to return back to healthier economy. And only then will be the time to step in and capitalize on other's mistakes, etc. patience, patience....
As someone who is trying to scoop up a foreclosure as his first home, this is great news (for me. Everyone else is hosed.)
That's exactly right. FED will inflate until large American Banks have divested their crap, then turn 180 to "battle inflation". Now (or soon) is a good buying opp, tho. Rates will be kept low for awhile and we could see pretty strong asset inflation, in the interim. Be interesting to watch sub-prime/Alt-A reset from 2% to 8%. Only a 300% increase in borrowing costs....
what many of on ET fail to see, RE is not stock market or futures market where ET types gamble. If you buy in this market your first home and you have a fairly safe job then who the fuck cares if it goes lower? You buy a house to live in and avoid renting/landlords and the problems accompanying such things. You can hardly ever catch the bottom of the RE market....no matter how hard you try...
job security, divorce who cares? Some of these homes being foreclosed NOW were purchased 2-3 years ago...or you are saying that according to that article people who are buying today are turning around and being foreclosed on? That may come in the future but the article is talking about houses bought right now! Some of these will pen out some will not, what do you care?