Forecasting Index Market Tops

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by MrTraderBot, Jul 29, 2020.

  1. Handle123

    Handle123

    Too many false signals doing 4 hour time-frames, I find daily works best in charting. I use TA, but never in looking for tops or bottoms, one way to loose entire accounts for me was use TA for extremes. Get into trenches and study reversals, after couple years of hard work, you much less likely to post what you learn.
     
    #11     Aug 1, 2020
  2. I don't mind a volume approach. Trade management skills have to be top notch for this to work.
    How do you create high accuracy on your decision to early exit / take loss? When do you know you're wrong?

    I think hedging has its benefits for longer term positions like you're doing but won't help for trades or swings being stuck near the top of a move.

     
    #12     Aug 1, 2020
  3. My thought identifying overbought conditions to reversal was based on no longer using long scalp ideas in the short term (not to find short opp at the top). 4 hr more granular so maybe some extra data to read into the PA to support your forecast.

     
    #13     Aug 1, 2020
  4. Yea 4hr will open up false signals, daily may be a little behind for proactively slowing down on buys.

    I don't think we should all organize everything we learn and share it in full detail but just some general concepts and thoughts to get everyone's brains moving never hurt.

     
    #14     Aug 1, 2020
  5. I like this one best so far.

    To add I think tops start from uptrend channels, if price should continue in this uptrend channel then its move should be predictable over time. As price breaks this channel it usually goes range bound, momentum over time slows, price fails to break highs, and large volume is exhibited. The lack of something can sometimes be the best indicator.

     
    #15     Aug 1, 2020
  6. tiddlywinks

    tiddlywinks

    Using time is tricky.

    Time needs to be anchored to something. Preferably something dynamic and immutable. It could be based on the bar count of the last move/range/whatever, or maybe a time series analysis, a cyclic pattern, some market event, astrology/astronomy, tides, geomagnetic forces, you get the picture.

    Done wrongly, using time is no different than using random Hz lines as support/resistance. The illusion of valid line placement will produce favorable outcomes. Same with time: the illusion of what seems a valid time anchor will produce favorable outcomes. Trading with consistent success is not possible (imo) based on such illusions.
     
    #16     Aug 1, 2020
  7. Thor

    Thor

    The daily is in sync with the natural calendar which makes it easier. None are going to disclose exactly how they do it.
    What you figure out is what you get.
     
    #17     Aug 1, 2020