Since it's not an easy thing to do, I thought it would be a good discussion to talk about different ways to forecast tops on a 4hr to day timeframe for index markets such as s&p500, nasdaq and dow. Being able to tell the difference between a smaller sell off from a high and a larger consolidation/correction that would last longer. You could obviously use some oscillating stats and look at overbought situations but you'll see a lot of false positives. Maybe layer a few indicators look at volume spikes and gain a little more accuracy, still a decent amount of false positives. Looking at some price to oscillator divergence, possibly a little better. Could you look at some other sources like skew index, vix, put/call ratios and correlate some patterns with the index that better point to overbought situations ending in a correction. Is it too hard so its best to find a good hedge during most overbought situations. Does the TA junkie need to venture into some more fundamental metrics or look at news or sentiment to forecast this better. What does everyone think?