Forecasting Implied Volatility

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Pro_Trader720, Aug 7, 2007.

  1. Does anyone have a good method for forecasting implied volatility? Any insight is greatly appreciated.

  2. If you could forecast IV you would be a waelthy man :D.

    There are a lot of models used to forecast IV but in my opinion how good are they really? IV is subject to demand/suply whims in the underlying or specific option changing the price which then affects the IV that you would have a wide range of errors perpahs. Also accounting for intra month skews and skews across months would be hard.

    I am sure market makers and big funds have their models but I bet they are no more accurate than what the market predicts through Black Scholes IV readings.