Forecast for 25th & 26th Aug'03

Discussion in 'Journals' started by abhay, Aug 24, 2003.

  1. abhay



    Few Important points to read before considering forecasts.

    If you don't like this and have something better please move to next thread and continue on your journey and make money for yourself...

    1. Times can be off by 15-20 min.

    2. Forecasts are to be used as Roadmap or strategy for planning your trades.

    3. Trades should be actually entered after confirmation from technical indicators. My preference is on 5 min charts:
    - Moving Avg crossover
    - Stochastics about to reverse
    - Volume

    4. Forecasts can be off 15%, I don't claim my forecasts to be 100%, for that you will have to seek GOD. People commenting on accuracy are invited to show anything better than this which was published before market and something consistent...

    5. Another method to determine Entry and Exit point is by determining pivot points. Wait for chart to form topping action or basing action (which mean 3-5 bars at same price range)

    6. I like to avoid trading forecast signals which are for very short duration.

    What I am posting here is just 1/2 of my work for 25th and 26th.

    For those who trade options, I am almost positive that buying OEX PUTS on 26th morning will give nice profit of atleast 20% by end of 26th close.

    Forecast for 26th will be attached in followup post..
  2. abhay


    Attached here is forecast chart for 26th Aug'03.
  3. abhay


    I will make trades upon confirmation from Market technical signals as mentioned in previous post.

    PS: Charts for 26th may be revised based on 25th action.
  4. Good luck.

  5. fortuna


    HOW ARE YOUR forecasts made ?

  6. see my reply in your other thread abhay.

    I truly wish u the best of luck, cause i beleive it's all u got going for you.

    Anyone remember the story in "Trading in the zone" where the technical analyst is telling this veteran pit trader that the price of wheat has bottomed for the day. He gave numerous technical reasons why this level would not be broken.

    The veteran pit trader picked up the phone and said "short X million bushels of wheat at the market."

    Needless to say the level was shattered and the market moved substantially down.

    A forecast or opinion is only a guide, not something to act upon. Only act upon it when the market reacts to that level as expected.
  7. abhay


    I intended to keep this thread free from a debate so that real material is not lost deep down.

    Why everything else fails ??? What is one thing that can foretell anything ???

    If you find the cause that drives anything and that is one and only one thing !!! I do not want to give it a name but youwill understand.

    Have I found the ultimate truth ??? It will be impossible to know 100% truth ever, but my formula is based on that. My system and my resources are just not enough to account for every event that may effect but it accounts for a lot of them which drive the market...

    Enough said, I will try to refrain myself from the debate as in any field we will encounter all kind of people. Best is do some homework and checkout my archive for as much period as you like and then comment if you could do that even in real time..

  8. nkhoi


    could you do one for spy/es or dow/spy is pretty much the same?
  9. abhay


    Yes, DOW/SPY/ES are almost mirror most of the time.

    Please read the guidelines in first post of this thread.

  10. Sharp



    I am wondering what benefit (edge) you find in using your prediction charts? I have posted your chart from Friday with an actual chart of the Dow and correct me if I'm wrong but you may have lost money by using your prediction charts. Your trading methodology (as stated on your website):

    - Plan for the trade from forecasts.

    - Pick the signals of longer duration

    - Avoid short term signals (about 20 min - 45 min) in counter trend direction

    - Plot MACD(3,10,1) , CCI(14), Relative Momentum Indicator(20,5) on a 5min real time chart

    - If forecast signal is for going LONG then

    look for MACD crossover happening towards upside and should be sufficiently below zero line
    CCI should be below 100, lower it is better are reversal chances
    Relative Momentum should be below the 40 level and preferably around 20 or below
    If all 3 above indicators line up nicely almost at the same time in the time frame where forecast is giving a LONG signal then probability of success is very high

    - If forecast is for SELLING or going SHORT then

    look for MACD crossover happening towards downside and should be sufficiently above zero line
    CCI should be above 100, higher it is better are reversal chances
    Relative Momentum should be above the 80 level and preferably around 90 or above
    If all 3 above indicators line up nicely almost at the same time in the time frame where forecast is giving a DOWN signal then probability of success is very high

    Your indicators and trading methodology may work better without the use of your prediction charts. Do you find your charts to be beneficial even though you still must wait for your indicators to enter a trade? Why not just trade based on your indicators? (Just wondering, it looks like you may have made better trades on Friday based on your indicators with out the use of your prediction chart. Maybe this does not happen that often.)

    Edit: The DOW chart is a 5 min chart. I believe that is what you use.
    #10     Aug 24, 2003