Let's hear some opinions on where Ford might be positioned 1 year from now. It's clear Ford is in trouble as all of the auto makers are but clearly not as big of trouble as GM and Chrysler. I'm sure there are people out there with good insight into the auto industry so let's hear some opinions. North American market share? World market share? Stock price?
I loaded a bunch of medium term notes back in early March for like 30 cents on the dollar. They and the shorter terms have all now nearly doubled. IMHO the best indicator we have is not the stock market, but the debt markets. Ford should really not be lamented in the same company as GM and Chrysler. They will be around.
In a free market Ford would be in great shape with two domestic competitors insolvent, buying valuable liquidated assets and picking up market share. Since we don't have a free market it's nearly impossible to predict Ford's fate. They are losing billions and a quick recovery is unlikely. When things are so bad losing 1.8B in a quarter is considered positive news, a company's future is murky at best.
Who knows but if/when GM separates into two companies -----it may do a Ford. Like Ford ---GM has all kinds of juicy assets. So does Chrysler by the way. These legacy patents/assets are quite valuable. Ford is looking like it will survive without taxpayer help!
Good point about the free market. I think Ford would be creating a big stink about it's two domestic competitors receiving government funds to stay alive if they were certain they wouldn't need those same funds in the future. Is it possible that Ford could actually suffer because they didn't take bailout funds like GM and Chrysler?