What do you base this prediction on? What would trigger that spike, and do you expect any slowdown in the economy by year-end?
<i>What do you base this prediction on? What would trigger that spike,</i> ------> They'll find some excuse to 'trigger' it. The excuse never matters. My prediction is based upon the normal cycle of a major commodity bull market: Long grinding uptrend---> Parabolic top-----> Back down to earth, where it stays for years afterward. BTW, 'peak oil' is bullshit. TONS of R&D cash is now pouring into oil & gas exploration & discovery. Conservation too. (Ethanol is a non-factor. It's all a big scam, as it takes more than one barrel of oil to produce one barrel of ethanol.) Today's tight supplies are a product of the low oil prices of the late '90's- which resulted in years of low exploration expenditures and the SUV fashion craze. <i> and do you expect any slowdown in the economy by year-end?</i> ---> I'm not sure.
Absolutely agree. I've been an oil bear for a few months. A bit early I guess, but I believe its in the 50's within 6 months or less. Only a major Mid East fuck up, or another Katrina could change my view. The hedgies and paranoia have way over inflated this puppy. I'm selling rallies unless there is a good reason for em.
this commentator says some interesting things about the oil futures market on NYMEX http://energy.seekingalpha.com/article/16264
Do I recall correctly that Steve Forbes predicted, in the fall of 2005, that oil was going to $35- $50 within a year? Well here we are now a year later and he's saying $100. So much for accurate predictions and placing reliance upon a magazie publisher for economic guidance.
exactly, all commoditites behave[d] like this on strong trends, why on earth should it be different for oil; even us futs and equities often do the same, no reason not to expect a parabole before the correction begins imo.
ethanol is utter crap; need to look no further than how xthn [xnl] is run...no interest in develop shite whatsoever, no proof it really works as a cheap and viable alternative...bunch of baloonie.
wont stay below 70 for long imo; nymex pit guys think the same also...infact every dip is still met by huge buy orders. may go down to 67-68, 65 max. but that's it.