:eek: Sure hope you're wrong on that prediction, but of course if that happens I'll be long gone. All depends on natural gas though. A down move in oil may not make as much difference as you think. OldTrader
One problem with NG wells is that they just go "dry" without much warning. At least oil wells decline for a few years.
I am betting oil will hit $50 before it rises to $100. Too many "know" oil is going to $100. Just had our finance minister on TV talking how oil will only rise in price. Sure sell signal when a politician is bullish.
"I like oil. Its hot." Got that from her cell phone - she was texting with an oil hedgie she was hanging out with. Fer Sure. I really can't see Oil below $60 for any extended period of time until this administration bows out. I remain long. And note that many energy equities are currently priced at the same value at $70 oil as they were at $60 oil, so makes me feel a little better about being long those. Your mileage may vary. $100 superspike? Nice selling oppty. I'm worried that TPTB may look at all the $$ being pumped into the mideast from high oil prices and seriously question whether it is enhancing or detracting from the security of the realm. If its decided that these maniacs are best left alone and poor, all bets off. But that's not until '08 and a Clinton Presidency.
oil is on a long term trend that's not even mature per-se...before we see any tumble i expect to see the contract enterin' into a channel and then rally strong into a parabole, maybe not like gld did a few months ago but a nice breakouot neverthelss...with this pace it is reasonable to see $85-90 at next yr end.
That's exactly what I'm expecting too. You're like the only guy I've ever seen who says intelligent things in AIMspeak. I think we keep sloshing around in the current range until after the (early November) elections. Then comes the parabolic spike top. Note: My long time-frame market predictions aren't nearly as accurate or valuable as my short time-frame predictions.