First, by no means was I implying that money can't be made daytrading in and out of GOOG on both sides. Second, I can easily believe that GOOG will trade lower from here. My point is that you had better know what you are doing and you'd better be well capitalized relative to your short position if you want to start building it from here. When these people talk about GOOG breaking 50% or 'now is the time to short GOOG', they are not talking about a daytrade. They are talking about establishing a short position and holding it for the ride down. Third, I am not sure why you need to lose money on a pullback after the stock breaks. Savvy shorts will be shorting the pullbacks after the stock breaks. That's called trading with the trend, I think. Again, I mean longer term, not daytrading. not sure what this means. Again, not sure if I understand your point. The intraday trend is your friend? If the weekly trend in GOOG is not yet down, then are you saying now is a bad time to start establishing a longer-term short position?
The livermore key was of course developed by jesse livermore and I just tried to back test it, understand it and share it with some people. My current model in use is not the same.
My guess is GOOG peaks out somewhere around $1,200 a share. Not sure when that will be. That would give them a market cap around 400 billion. CSCO at their peak I believe had a 550 billlion market cap and had no where near the monopoly GOOG has. The bottom line is this. If GOOG had been splitting their stock all the way up and was only a $40 stock now, you guys wouldn't even be talking about it. It's only because GOOG is trading at such a large number that you figure it's too high. Right now GOOG is shattering every record on the books for a company in this country since its existence. No company has ever grown this fast and had this kind of monopoly on a commodity that most of us would agree is the most valuable in the world. Yes, even more valuable then oil. This company is being run by some of the smartest guys on the planet and these guys are not going to stop till they own and control every piece of information and media in the world. If I had to put a price tag on that, I would say, I don't know, 10 trillion? Give or take. So a 400 billion market cap seems about right to me. This is the greatest growth story ever. I'm sure their will be sharp pullbacks along the way as well as many many downgrades. Keep in mind, the only reason theses analysts are downgrading the stock is so they can put their customers back in it later, nice double commission setup. Anyway, good luck to all the longs and shorts in this stock. It's a great trading vehicle.
"Larry Page, Google's co-founder and president of products, will give a keynote address Friday at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Analysts suspect that Page will use the opportunity either to show off a Google computing device or announce a partnership with a big retailer to sell such a machine Cheap PCs, anyone? Google will unveil its own low-price personal computer or other device that connects to the Internet. Sources say Google has been in negotiations with Wal-Mart Stores Inc., among other retailers, to sell a Google PC. The machine would run an operating system created by Google, not Microsoft's Windows, which is one reason it would be so cheap â perhaps as little as a couple of hundred dollars. Bear Stearns analysts speculated in a research report last month that consumers would soon see something called "Google Cubes" â a small hardware box that could allow users to move songs, videos and other digital files between their computers and TV sets" http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-predict1jan01,1,2277666.story?coll=la-headlines-business This is a game of information. There are a number of proffessional short seller firms that do their homework and they aren't looking at GOOG for roadkill yet. GOOG revenues for 2005 will be in the range of 6.1 billion.
Thanks Barons, great short! Maybe next week you want to put them on the cover and say they are going to be a penny stock, that will surely drive the stock to over 500.