Roxyman, I had many times 10 winning trades in a row. That by itself means nothing though. I pay attention to my Winning Ratio, Profit Ratio, Drawdown and expences Hamb
abogdan, Very, very interesting observations. I am always looking if you offer some new ideas. "Any stock with beta >= 2.5 and sock price >= 30 typically exhibit this behavior." Any webside where I can scan for srocks that meet that critiria, anyone? Hamb
All 5 stock hit there upside targets. I did notice that KLAC, did trade alot around its open and was tough to get on the right side. It looks like using this model we know the open and where it can mostlikely go on the high and low, but getting on the right side at the right time takes talant. Whipsaws and transaction cost and executions are a problem.
Well, If you look at the Bid/Ask chart you'll notice that KLAC did 11 flips this morning around OPEN + $0.025 and OPEN - $0.025 lines before hitting 1%. Which is perfectly acceptable by the model (Please read my first post in this thread), Regards,
Yes, I have had some recent runs of up to 20 winners in a row... and as Hamb rightly says, number of wins in a row is pretty irrelevant unless the rest of the math falls into place...
All's I was looking at was the equity trades on abogdans statement. When I looked at the rest there were 10 equity trades and 8 option trades only 1 looser. But that was only the last week of the month. The account was up 500k where only 225 k was put in the account. Seem to me Winning Ratio, Profit Ratio, Drawdown and expences are not very positive. What's going on here? I would like to know more as to the discipline that is being used here and what "setups" are being targeted to lead to such results.
Abogdan, Are you closing out your long & short positions whenever price reverses course and cross the horizontal line ? And also, are you using 1-min bars or tick-by-tick ? Thanks in advance !
I'm using Bid/Ask charts only, no bar charts of any sort have been used. The rules are very simple: For each stock you need to determine the channel (I call it "delta"). This channel is determined by ((OpenBid + OpenAsk)/2) +/- Delta. So you will end up with two lines "UperLimit" and "BottomLimit". Then you need to find for each stock guaranteed "swing" which is the minimum value of (Open - Low) or (High - Open) which ever is greater per day over at least 250 days. For KLAC it was 1.042%. Then you choose your Delta to minimize flips yet keep the losses of each flip to be not more than 0.1% - 0.25%. Then if BidPrice is higher then your "UpperLimit" you go LONG. If AskPrice is below "BottomLimit" you go SHORT. Each time you flip you add shares that are enough to cover your average loss of your average flip using the formula I described in my original post. Regards,
abogdan, Thanks for the info. I am going to back-test this strategy to test its viability. It is an interesting hypothesis. Thanks again !