Roxy: What I would suggest is to have a stop loss not to be based on the price but rather on amount of flips. For example, I got stopped out on AMGN today loosing 0.8%, but my entire portfolio is up 2.2%. I'm also going to add more stocks as I keep on optimizing them. Good luck!
Hi Roxy, Thanks for your posted spreadsheet. I'm a little confused though...the post title says "a simple verification". Don't take this wrong as I'm really trying to understand it -- what is verified by the spreadsheet? Is that a record of whether today the 16th those 10 stocks move the prescribed distance? Thanks JB
sorry if i say something already covered within this thread, but does the concept not suffer from the problems all martingales contain, namely that in the end it can only work with unlimited capital, otherwise you go bust for sure?
Yes, that is why you have stops! Besides, the martingale concept presumes normal distribution curve which is not the case for certain volatility levels. Look for you self how much the distribution is skewed in KLAC!
I should have said Simplistic verification, I am only using an Excel spread sheet linked to esignal to see if this is working before I trade real time. I did not load the algorithm that was provided, I do not have the programing capability. I wanted to see if the targets were being met, but I did not track or could track the number of flipping and trades before the right direction was ascertained. That is for guys like turok and abogdan to help us other guys. I find the initial post of intriguing and what to find out more about it and get the input of the other trading experts, before I put money behind it.
>That is for guys like turok and abogdan >to help us other guys. I'm sure you won't rely on me or abogdan to protect your account - that would really be a bad idea. >I find the initial post of intriguing and what to >find out more about it and get the input of the >other trading experts, before I put money >behind it. And I would sure appreciate it if some experts would weigh in here on this thread (I am not one). I'm pretty sure I know why they haven't. JB
>does the concept not suffer from the problems >all martingales contain, In spite of abogdan's distribution assertion, the originally posted system suffered from just that (and other problems as well). The latest system may be protected from the ultimate number of flips (I emphasize "maybe") but as you would know, limiting the number of losers you will take in a row on the martingale blackjack table does not improve it's perfomance to a point of long term profitiblity I have not yet had the time to buckle down and code the latest system but my gut says it will suffer at least from churn and liquidity issues. Only the numbers will tell the story. JB
The key is locating situations with very few crosses but likely movement. What about news stocks? Take the morning's stocks from briefing.com and filter by volume/price. These will want to move with very few crosses. You might even skip the first trade and assume at least one fake. The other thought would be to put in a trailing stop at the target rather than a limit. If the stock wants to run 5 points, let it.
Yes, the news stocks is a good idea except they have to much the criteria of the minimum swing. Trailing stop was always in our system (please read previous posts on this thread). It is a big factor in the system.
abogdan: >Trailing stop was always in our system You keep confusing comments regarding your original posted system and whatever system you happen to be trading for real. Your orginal system as posted HAS NO TRAILING STOP!!! The trailing stop wasn't even mentioned by you until a post 9 days later. If I am wrong and you can find your mention of a trailing stop in your originally posted system I will put on the moron hat and apologize profusely. Again, this is not a critisism of posting an incomplete system. Just please take into account that fact that when I comment on the results tested so far I am clear to explain that it is the system *as originally posted*. JB