Is the market expecting a deal with the yield up, oil up and gold is down? or is it all in cash or out of whack?
Not an expert, but there will be no deal. US will keep adding tariffs to Chinese products. The main question is whether the US can regain her allies before her former allies go China.
trump is managing the country from his intuition. he does not calculate what is the best way to achieve his goal. for example, if he wants to win the trade war with china, he should not open war at the same time with the allies. in this regard, trump is not a good leader for USA.
The bad boy cried wolf too many times already. Sooner or later, the market will discount him altogether.
China still playing its silly games. Two years of negotiations on the serious trade issues and they have not come around. That is fine. Just impose 50% tariffs on ALL Chinese products. Then, decouple the US economy by ordering the products we need from other Asian countries, $500 billion a year and call it a day. US can win by default and China's economy can get destroyed for good. No need for a trade deal with China. The Chinese need it more than us. There is a lot of cash on the sidelines which will get invested in the US stockmarket. The US economy is doing better than Europe or China. Other Asian countries like Vietnam, Taiwan, India doing better too as they become the beneficiary of US companies moving out of China to avoid tariffs.
Some good points here... Lots of folks aren't seeing the big picture/long term effects of a better arrangement and I think the Chinese are hoping for a different leader here after 2020. They may wait until after the election to finalize anything. Another thing that gets missed is the simplistic way Trump views success and prosperity - it's largely a higher equity market. I believe that if the market starts to falter and he can't find a way to reverse it via tweet, that he may cut some deals or take some other action to bring the markets back up. We always talked about a Fed put for years, but I feel like we have a Trump put right now.
Trump has been great for China. Another 4 years would be wonderful. If he keeps the tariffs up he only tarnishes his image, and his isolationist policy is better viewed as a opportunity for Chinese expansion into American allies, which Trump is hard at work driving away from being pro-America. I wouldn't be surprised if next year China starts chanting "Make America Great Again!"
given russia's population, it has no chance to post a real challenge to USA. i do not know why so many elites in washington still consider russia a threat, and push russia and china to unite against USA. USA can never win a war in whatever form against china and russia at the same time, since china has manpower and russia has resources. in fact, China and russia are in-born enemies due to history and territory disputes. now they become friends due to USA's stupid policy.