Discussion in 'Economics' started by morganist, Mar 4, 2009.
to me it seems that politicians are not understanding the situation in full.
I agree - people here in the UK are totally clueless as to what is going on, just like everywhere else in the world. Look even here on ET, maybe a dozen people actually think we're going to have a Great Depression II, most think it'll just be a hard landing recession.
There will definitely be economic meltdown. The UK banking system is bankrupt, and if the government nationalizes it, so is the UK government. Pound sterling will fall below $1.00. Unemployment will hit 15%. GDP will fall at least 10%, maybe 20% peak to trough. House prices will fall 60-80% peak to trough.
The best way to think of this is as a developed-world version of the 1997-8 Asia crisis. That ended with 90% stockmarket declines, crushing economic depression, total bankruptcy of the banking system, FX devaluation, street rioting and even ethnic pogroms in many places. It will be the same here.
I think most of the people who have spent a little of their time these last few months on obtaining some kind of global economic view know this is in the cards undoubtably and perhaps even unavoidable at this stage at least this is how I see it.
Once you get past the acceptance of a global depression, which isn't that easy to do, the question that has kept me occupied the most is what after the meltdown.
People say rebuild but that is so vague.
You won't have economic recovery selling oranges and cigarettes on the corner of the street.
The governments should have let the banks go bust, guarantee deposits to a certain extend and create some kind of war cabinet with the world's smartest in several business areas (no bankers!) to deside or at least get a clue where the next areas of economic growth will come from.
Such kind of policy action will dimish some of the social unrest coming from letting the banks go bust.
Trouble is should they decide to go about it that way the only thing they'd come up with is building new roads and isolating school buildings and huge amounts of pork for politicians and corrupt captains of industry.
These hundred thousand of service economy unemployds are going to take a shovel in their hands and start digging holes to feed their families?
That's just proposterous.
I'd like to think we need a revolution but then again I feel maybe this is wat they want so they won't need to play their totalitarian regimes behind the curtain anymore and guess what soccer moms will love the smackdown on the anarchists.
We are so screwed or have I been spending to much time on those silly goldbugforums again.
UK will be a disaster.
ethnic conflicts all over will take place.
it is the end of the Union
the scots will be chasing the english out
the english will be bashing the scots
the blacks will stab anyone who comes into the inner city slums
and the indians will be thrashed by all the above groups
the simple summary is this low interest = low incentive to lend = less credit = economic collapse unless other money supply methods and capital generation methods are found the economy will degrade.
The UK should nationalize the Premier League.
A real money cow.
Of course he is a fool, that is what caused the RBS collapse in the first place.
A police investigation into fred and his cronies will reveal fraud which in its own way has its own outcome.
fred's legal entitlements and Sirsmanship will be removed and fred could face jail.
It is up to the public to keep the pressure on the investigation.
none of that silly Diana stuff
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