Predictions predictions contradictions .... Is a stupid game to play. Trade what you see not what you think. That guy on fastmoney on cnbc was saying a week back he bought FCX at 78 and yesterday he was saying he didn't think it was going any lower with copper at $3.4, guess what he is down 15%+ in week
I have been in this game a long time my friend, trust me I trade what I see not what I think, I was merely pointing out the fact that there are stocks falling apart right now at nearly a 10-1 rate vs. stuff going up strongly.
So is the new trend down yet, all the investors always say follow the trend, when does this drop in the market of over 5% come the trend for the markets to move even lower. When do you start to follow the trend, after it breaks 10,000, 9800, 9500, 9200, 9000, 8800, 8500, 8000. Thats the problem, you can look back now on 2007 when the markets topped and see that no one knew it was a down market until it completely fell apart, there were many money managers and plenty of talking heads on cnbc saying buy the dip, im sure many did and they were very wrong, who knows if this is a dip to 9800 or 7200 and then a rally to 11k or 12k. Everyone has to understand the markets have rallied off nothing but plenty of liquidity, stimulus money and keeping it afloat by keeping rates at ZERO %%%%. That can only last for so long, job creation is years away, im sure the economy will create a few hundred thousand jobs here and there but it will not even be close to the 10 million+ we need to get unemployment back 4% or lower.
Though I haven't been trading all that long, I've discovered that when you try picking a top and fail a few times, then price goes so high you actually become afraid to short, that is the perfect short signal.
' I have learned that the only thing that matters is the boss' opinion on the market, and in his view things are bleak. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZarmRLa2p9Q j/k Nodoji congrats on your success, take a look at my journal if you are curious as to the way i trade trending stocks, see ya in the room!
it was harder to call a top this time because the news actually started coming in positive... the rule in 09 was buy on bad news.. SO FAR this year its been sell on anything positive