Does ths market not feel eerily similar to when the S&P first broke from 1550? Nice run up and things out there just getting massacred. I was going through my list of stocks which I trade today, (all the high volume names) and I probably have about 200 stocks out of 1000, which have no where to go but down, and have chart patterns looking Like Sandisk ready for free fall. Any time these things tick up in the slightest intraday there they are met by heavy selling pressure. When you think you might have seen a capitulation bottom it blows through it and keeps going with very little resistance. Here is to hoping the volatility comes back for a while. We are going a lot lower IMO.
Fundamentals in general seem to be getting better....and I would think that from a TA view, 10,000 on the Dow would provide psychological support. We shall soon see. Stosh
Not even close to 2007. First of all, the market back then was much more overvalued. I would say at current prices, we are slightly overvalued. Second, the economy back then was getting worse, now the economy is getting better. Sentiment is totally different, there was hardly any fear back then. Now, anytime we go down, people think 2008 in their heads.
If you think back though people were not scared of the move when it first came in 2007-2008, when we broke from 1550 originally every pundit and his dog was saying to buy the dip, then we cruised on through a level around 1330, and went to the next level at 1270, then the shit hit the fan, and that was when the panick began. (I dont have my charts in front of me so dates/prices may not be exact but i think you remember what i was talking about One thing I see which could cause a serious problem though is Obama's talk about regulating banks, and not allowing them to speculate, if people got the idea that the banks were going to be forced to liquidate positions in equities the market could see a scenario similar to a run on the bank. I honestly doubt it will be that serious, and the worst is behind us, but i could easily see us shedding another 10% from here, one thing which I am fairly confident of is that we will not be seeing the 1150 high's of this move for quite some time. I really dont care either way as I make my money from daytrading but it would be nice to see some volatility come back.
The economy is getting better! Like a crack addict walking out of rehab it is. Economy = GDP = Money = Debt. Debt is collateralized by real estate and homes, which are going down in value, which causes debt to contract, which causes real estate and homes to contract, which causes debt to contract ad infinitum until something of greater force repels the contraction. Bringing money from the future to halt and expand debt (GDP) is like borrowing more money to pay the mortgage you canât affordâyou are eventually toast.
The other problem is that GDP is currently growing in a way which is unsutainable, people are working harder because of layoffs, while unemployment grows. So production may be the same but consumer spending will not grow this year, and in fact it will shrink drastically, when you remove 700bill from the government spending side of the equation this year (stimulus bill) things dont quite look so rosy.
i agree. the first week of January i was flipping through hundreds of charts and besides the fact that they exhibited THE SAME relative chart setup.. they were all screaming short on a technical basis. i called a top back in July, September, November, and didnt have the balls this time around to go all in with that said, companies are making profits and untill that changes there is no reason stocks across the board should tank. whats been weird for me is that when i was swing trading 2004-2006.. i could pull up many charts and they all had unique setups and patterns. for the past 10 months all equities generally shadow the indexes in trend (although not %/\). my view is that the past 10 months in equities have been a giant bulltrap, we are in for a double dip recession, kinda difficult now that we grew "apparently" 5% last quarter, but GDP will contract again in my opinion, looking for Q4-10 or Q1-2011. this leg down is in its early stages so alot of pundits can still brush it off as just a pullback. the only way the people knew the economy was collapsing back in Oct08 was that stock prices were bombing. it seems that the "stock market" is the thermometer for the economy and if this heads much lower breaking down below 200mda "another crisis" will be discussed on the news and politics. in the immediate future, we have a problem b/c Euro is breaking down with the Greece issue. appears WAY oversold at this point and a sharp pullback next week might slow the market down. im still waiting for the correlation between the dollar and equities to reverse.. the day the dollar falls and stock markets fall will be a glorious day for all Bears around the world.
I agree that volatility was back this week somewhat and it was nice to have a decent week for stocks, I can only hope it continues from here and we dont just flatline.
Then you understand exactly what I was looking at today, I have a very simple way of screening stocks, I have a list of 1000 that I filter by percent change from open, then decide somewhat discretionarily to enter, here is the bottom WORST OF 15 stocks from my initial sort. (ANR, AVY, LEG, HP, WLT, ACI, LZ, TSRA, BTU, SNDK.....) Check out the daily's on these stocks, the list goes on for 200 stocks like that. I have never seen it look that ugly. It is a cakewalk shorting these things when they break their support levels, and I can only hope they keep going. The top of the list(i.e. highest percent change from open) is a bunch of stuff which is at the bottom of a support range, which either bounced a little after gettting clobbered all week, or else has tons of resistance ahead of it, and turned intraday with the market. In terms of what you said about all the dips in July September and November being wrong, I never saw stuff getting decimated like this back then, though i did see it in the initial market collapse from 1550. There was still lots of strength in certain names for the dips in 2009. To quote the wisest of the wise traders, this time is different my friend we are going down. (weak trading humour.) good trading to ya!