For newbies by a newbie

Discussion in 'Educational Resources' started by newtothis, Sep 19, 2008.

  1. Want to make some money, I found the easiest way for people to make money.
    This is not new and most people do know this.
    Take a group of similar stocks in the same industry and just watch them, about 5 from 2 or 3 indecies should be enough.
    whatever is lagging behind just go with it (make sure no news out on this particular stock thats keeping it strong or weak)
    if its a bull market and you see one stock up only 10 cents and its relative to prices of other stocks in that industry, buy.
    Vice versa for a bear market.
    this works 90% of the time
    today for some reason southwest airlines is lower but I'm staying away from it
    good luck to all and lets take some money from those market makers :)
  2. CTT


    Are you a successful trader? How did you come up with 90% of the time?

    Surely you want to buy the strongest stock in a sector and short the weakest stock? Why deal with lagging stocks? Unless you're afraid of buying stocks that are already "up too much"??

    Is your logic that a stock that lags behind is more prone to go up than one that is already up? The way I see it.... if the entire industry is rallying and one stock is lagging, I'm inclined to short a little bit, but that's just me :D There's a reason why it hasn't rallied while the rest of the industry has.
  3. The lagging stock will tank the hardest at the first pull back by its leaders. This is a newbie trap that you are teaching. May work sometimes but I'd say it fails 90% of the time.
  4. been trading on and off for 4 months and up a couple of grand.
    i don't know if that makes me successful or not
  5. Second this, newbees will fall for anything these days.
  6. How about you people include some tips with your opinions and not quit while your ahead
  7. ggoyal


    unless u can back it up with proof, ur blabber is as good as donkey poo.

    either back it up with evidence from ur super sized account, or atleast some detailed back testing. How did you come up with 90%? is it based on a large sample size, or just 9/10.

    it's not a horrible strategy, but if u r just playing intraday, i doubt it would work.

    i have seen some fund managers take positions based somewhat on this theory, but timeframe is longer. not to mention the detailed analysis done on it given the larger time frame.

    they even had quants working on it.
  8. CTT


    Unfortunately, that doesn't really mean anything. Are you up a couple grand on a $5 million dollar account or are you up a couple grand on a $500 account. One is much more impressive than the other but with only four months trading, neither means your successful.

    I don't think anyone with 4 months experience in ANY job should be out telling people how to do things.

    The strategy you outlined just isn't very smart, try to break it down logically. If you're watching 5 stocks and 4 of them go up and 1 does not, that tells you that that stock is weak, people are not buying it up. The next time that sector makes a rally, you have a much better chance of making money being in the strong stocks, not the weak stock hoping it will catch up.
    When the market makes a pull back, the strong stocks should be able to hold up, whereas your weak stock that you are hoping to go up has now just lost all its buyers that were not able to push the stock up and now you just have sellers, so it will take a bigger hit.

    A brief example would be Lehman Bros. If you started buying LEH on September 11th because all the other stocks in that sector were showing nice positive days and LEH was lagging.... you would be in deep ****. I'm not saying they all end like that, but you're odds of making a consistent living buying laggards is most likely not going to be the best way to go.
  9. ok you naysayers
    today I was watching chk tanking in the morning, why, bec they they decided to give dividens or something like that. Not my concern only that I know the company will have less money bec. of dividend payout, good.
    BUT most of the energy sector along with agriculture is going up bec. of the rise in commodoties again.
    So what did I do? I bought chk @40.90, It showed some support around that area, yes it took a small dip but then rallied again
    This is what I mean about laggards.
    Yes your all right about shorting it if the market turns around but I'll be out by that time :)
  10. CTT


    Good stuff, glad to see you had some sort of plan going into the trade. When did you end up getting out of the stock?
    #10     Sep 22, 2008