Italy's cases are about the same and death many time more. You are telling us China has better healthcare than Italy?
Operative word is if. Even I play devil's advocate and assume there are 10 million in the US currently, infected but, not tested. Assume further that those with serious symptoms will call 911 and be taken to the emergency rooms of hospitals. They will be evaluated by doctors and majority will be found having mild symptoms and sent home to quarantine themselves and get well. We will assume the death rate as it is which is 2,229 deaths which is what is actually reported. Now, based on that, 2,229 deaths over 10,000,000 Corona Virus infections is a death rate of 0.02%. So, you are projecting millions of deaths based on the so called bogus academics seeking their 15 minutes of fame? Utter nonsense!
There are probably about 1 million infections in the US at the moment. Of those around 6000 will die. And at least 50,000 will we be wanting hospital beds. The rest will be mild cases.
China did strict lock down on the whole country. but lets take Wuhan the epicenter... 3000 dead on 10m population, so 300 per m, that is inline with italy and spain currently at about 150 per m, and showing signs of peaking, when all is said and done both prolly end up with 500 per m worst case. so the US has no where near the population density of Italy / Spain... but even if we hit 500/m, that's 200k death tops, in the worst case scenario.... then compare to the 80k death from the 2018 flu. you see this whole picture... just a flu+, or flu on steroids. a real nothing burger if you consider the full out panic.
all this is simple math... what people don't have is independent thinking, logical thinking skills, essentially the same skill sets required for the markets... this is why so few succeed in the markets, because this skill is rare, you see how lonely the cool heads are on the forum... the % prolly is inline with the very few % who actually makes money in the market. it's not a very hard skill... if you have minimum 110 IQ and TRAIN this skill for some time you will get it... this is not some quantum physics.... just basic number gathering.
I'm predicting 150K globally this year. Assume China is lying. Their people had to say "don't be afraid to tell the truth to your boss"
I agree with you on this. Just want to add the following on short term trading: 1. If it is all you do for a living and for investing your asset, your chance of making it is very small, worse than trying to make it in Hollywood. 2. If it is a small part of your overall asset base (even if that asset base is small), if you still have a day job, like a professional hedge fund manager getting paid out of fees, then trading can be very profitable because you then have the staying power and the ability to take advantage of opportunities. Even in today's market you could make some real money if you trade in and out of BA, for example, from $90 to $180... If I were a young trader I do #2.
I want to avoid the thought process of doing things because of my age. I will hope not to lose my guts as I get older.