Well I guess we will know in 5 days which is when I think we will exceed 5k and the peak is not for several more weeks.
Lockdowns will ruin a peak and down, put more of a steady top in like Italy, same result given unlimited health care, just longer. Based on the assumption that everyone pretty much got it, most without knowing ofcourse. Theories around that only 3% of UK have it, which is a worst case. London's Peaked like NYC, rest of the UK behind 10 days area with lockdowns slowing.
I did account for flattening in my forecast, but I just can't get to anything less than 10k deaths in NY. A lot of the numbers are already in the pipeline despite the lockdown and unlike China it is not a complete lockdown. There are still people on the streets and parks
Remember the Lock down, is only a slow the spread, it's not like it's plague where you have to STOP the spread, it's like a cold, everyone on the planet will have it. NYC Sideways reducing numbers for 7days then head down. Everyone in China has had it from the look of it, or the few cases would be shooting up, still early days and well china so ??
Not a competition, but haha sure. It is not like I am going to do anything different. Lockdown for now!
Same here BORED BORED BORED!!! Tiny bit of work, I'm spreading over the period!! Walking and riding bike, but Legs can't take any more so rest needed!!
All the research and studies i seen have the true death rate at between 0.5% and 0.7% (deaths among all infections, not just the recorded ones) This is confirmed from closed environment of Cruise ships where everyone on board can be tested. On the Diamond princess of all those infected the death rate was 0.9%. They did not miss anyone, no guess work involved. There was another study just out yesterday that confirmed as well: A group of researchers analyzed data from China and found that the overall mortality rate of COVID-19 was 1.38%. But if they adjusted for cases that likely went unaccounted for due to their mild or asymptomatic nature, the overall mortality rate decreased to around 0.66%, they reported on March 30 in journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases.
That is why no one says the true death rate is 0.9% like the cruise ship would first suggest. When you adjust for the demographics on the diamond princess, you get a figure somewhere between 0.5 and 0.7 for the general population as a whole.