For Hoofhearted, a debate on unemployment and budgets

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Tsing Tao, Nov 6, 2012.

  1. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    We'll start with the unemployment one that AK posted. Here it is, for reference:


    The first obvious slant in that stupid chart is when Obama took office. I think we can all agree that he took office on Jan 20th, 2009. But if you look at that chart, it is made to appear as if Obama took office sometime around January 2010. The arrow on the top header points to that, as does the arrow encapsulating "Obama takes office". The creators of the chart say "oh, that's just accidental. We have the arrow beginning on the right date in Jan 2009. But the way the chart was written, it makes it look like Obama came to office with a few declines, and then launched into job creation.


    So let's actually look at the raw data itself.

    The BLS reports that the economy has 194,000 more jobs now (as of last report) than it did in January 2009. If you wish, you can see this for yourself at the website under custom reporting, or you can read an article quoting it directly, here.

    When you look at the chart above, that is certainly not communicated in the slant. But the real issue in the 194,000 jobs "created" is in the methodology.

    For example, we need to consider how jobs are counted, and who is counted as "unemployed". We know that if, for example, an airplane pilot gets laid off, and has to find work, and goes to Burger King to serve fries, he is not counted as unemployed. He is working. That is one job lost, one job created. Net effect, zero. But in the unemployment report, he is not counted as unemployed. He is "under employed" and shows up in the U6 metric, but of course neither that chart nor the media talking points refer to anything in the U6.

    Additionally, what that chart (and the BLS) do not clearly point out is the number of jobs the BLS puts in for "birth/death" creation. You know, the fudging of additional jobs the BLS comes up with as a formula to count those "jobs it can't see in it's survey". For more on the Birth/Death adjustment, look here.

    Since jan 2009, the Birth/Death numbers have been responsible for adding 2.4 million jobs. Don't believe me? Go here if you want to do the math yourself.

    So let's get this straight. Not only were only 194,000 jobs created in the last 4 years (pretty much the entire time Obama was in office), but that number includes a 2.4 million addition of jobs that came from a calculation the BLS plugs into it's sheet, yet has no direct reference to any real job created?

    That chart doesn't show any of that, and certainly doesn't make it seem anything less than stellar performance, which it certainly was not.

    Your turn, Hoof. Dazzle me.

    "If you are on disability, you are not considered to be in the labor force either. As of April, we have added 5.5 million people to the disability rolls since the beginning of 2009, several million above the previous trend. There are now roughly 9 million people on disability. In 1992, there was one person on disability for every 35 workers. It is now about one for every 16 workers. It is hard to believe that so many people have become disabled; disability has literally become another fallback position for people out of work. If disability had stayed at the pre-recession growth rate, unemployment would be at least one percentage point higher, leading to a true unemployment rate much closer to 10 percent and perhaps significantly more."
  3. pspr


    Where's hoofy?
  4. Max E.

    Max E.

    Obama has the worst record for Job creation of any president in modern history, only a mindless Zombie would play his jobs data off as if it was actually a positive.

  5. exGOPer


  6. exGOPer


    More relevant with context.


  7. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

  8. 377OHMS


    New account, just for today maybe? Any reason you can't use your regular ET or do you need deniability for your posts?
  9. exGOPer


    I registered in May, so how can this be a new account? Just active in the politics section (here and at Wilmott) just for the election day.
  10. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    You registered in May, just for election day?
    #10     Nov 6, 2012