I have this theory that I've pretty much had for years I would say. And it's that there isnt such a thing really as bulls and bears (or I should say there is but the true big moves of the market are not caused because of a struggle between them being won). That the market is really just controlled in large part by banks (FX). When you see price break levels its done on purpose for no other reason than to take out stops. Am I correct in this?
I enjoyed readimg the journal of the forex trader named "FXintruder" . Motives and effects of different types of players were discussed . I think the journal title was."neither tech nor macro" By the way...he was very in tune with USD/JPY at 76. This was long ago and Hopefully he is sailing the globe.
In my opinion there are quite a few ideas regarding the whole big banks hunting stops. I listened to a podcast a while back that made me take an different perspective on the situation, it said something along the lines that the big banks could care less about our stops as individual retail traders. To think that the big banks are conspiring against our positions and attempting to stop us out does seem to me as a long shot. Then again, I do not really know. Instead, I do not really think about someone or some company in the market attempting to sabotage my success. I guess it is just the mindset that you choose to take when you are participating in the market. So, to answer your questions, you are neither completely wrong or right. It really comes down to what you believe to be true about the subject.
its true that order flow traders for banks purposely target stop levels and s/r levels..this is why price always moves in the opposite direction before a big move in 1 direction more often than it simply trending away strongly in a direction...
Seriously, retail traders trading with direct market access that the banks could manipulate to "take out stops" consist of a fraction of one percent of the overall forex market. A market that is primarily made up of banks executing business strategies on behalf of their clients. Additionally, banks are now prohibited from operating trading divisions and have shut those operations down and laid off thousands who used to staff them. Even if the remaining operations are trading under the guise of hedging, they don't have the financing to just arbitrarily move markets up and down, and they've zero motivation to take the risk of doing so with the double layer of scrutiny they are under. Especially not to take $10k off a punter by blowing their stop. You're flattering yourself into being far more important than you are if you put any credence into this kind of conspiracy theory, all the more so since it's backed by no evidence except your failure to make money in the market which must be the fault of someone else.
do you personally have inside information with how bank traders work? If they are the only ones that have the power to move the market then why does it move and break levels so often seemingly (its hard to not have it be so blatant and obvious to see on charts). Why do they do it? I can't think of any other reason than to take out stops not necessarily from someone who is selling a 1 lot but certainly from other big orders then in the market.
The truth is you guys are doing it to yourselves. Banks play in the swaps market. They are trading spot against forwards and creating interest rate swaps. They are not punting directional bets to take out stops. And how is it that they know which stops to take out? Let me guess. It's only your stops they are going after? Of course.
its obvious when you look at charts that levels are taken out first before big moves occur. i dont see how this is that much of an argument its there on the charts?
There are levels everywhere! Every tick is someone's level. Come on man. Markets go up and down. Even in Lumber futures levels are taken out. Is there a market you can point me to where levels are "not" being taken out?