Thanks Rob. Gonna start looking at VLO and TSO puts and maybe some more gold. Afraid of that GOOG thing, its just too high up there and I'm afraid of the past. It just seems like the same mistake all over again, otherwise I'd be right there with you on calls. I stared hard at getting calls but just walked away shaking my head. Maybe once October is over with... Good Luck out there!!!
Sold my GOOG NOV360 call this a.m. after stock passed $349 - was thinking $350 will surely prove to be a resistance point and will retreat from there. Bought @$5.51, sold @$8.31. Acc't is finally back above $2k after a dismal low of $350 2 mos. ago. Which means I have to buy back my wife's USNA stock which IB sold on my playing my margin too close. I just did that now, getting in @$43 even. So I have about $1k to play with, some already tied up in small longer term pos'ns. I'm also waiting to hear what Multi's next move is and hopefully will have enough to follow him on it.
Qiuniu, I can understand your reluctance toward GOOG - it IS an overvalued stock. However, investors are consistently "google-eyed" over it, and market-wide, analysts (even the self-professed bearish ones) are setting price targets at $350 to $400. So, barring any bad company news, which I suspect the stock price would be VERY sensitive to, it will follow it's own growth, or the NASDAQ, whichever's move is the more significant. Until, of course, it hits its expected highs and will then correct from there. So, if you're tempted, I'd buy coming out of the next dip, as long as it's below $350. The next major move I'm hoping to ride is a big downturn - but don't know when that's gonna happen. Remember though, I'm in deep recovery mode.
Thanks Rob. I'm so sick I can't think straight right now. Fever and stuff, I'm sitting out right now. Have fun with this little rally. cough, cough, sneeze
Sorry to hear you suffer... I played Sneaky pete yesterday - re-sold some of my wife's USNA stock to ride a couple of GOOG calls for the day, got out after I made $100 and re-bought the stock. This morning, I bought a BBY put because it is on a down trend and always breaks below the BB 20EMA line and touches the lower BB line before correcting upwards, over the last 6 mos. anyway. Bought another 2 later morning for avg. $1.24 on all 3 as the move is being confirmed. It's just touching the top of the EMA line now on its way down. It's a down day in general, so I sold all my wife's stock again to invest in 3 GOOG NOV390 calls @ avg. $2.44. Unbelievably, Cramer reset his GOOG target from $350 to $450 last night! A tough challenge! God bless you with a quick recovery.
Thanks Rob. Just pulling out right now, with the cold and all. Saw Cramer upgrade and with your remarks I got in on GOOG, just a little bit though. Got a lot on my plate to look at now, since I slept in, since I thought I needed it. Race against time with some of this stuff today. Good luck out there!!!
I see energy taking a kickin' again - ECA not looking favorable anymore - what with CEO change, E.R. disappointment, and sale of assets. After this news is over, SWN should be a good play with a rise in nat. gas prices for the winter. I see your toe in the GOOG water - I was surprised to see the market dive today and GOOG retrace with it. I now see it is getting overbought and hope the market rallies to allow it to recover. BBY down sharply as expected, GGC E.R. says moderate approval and I'm hoping for a rise, as Cramer recommended it strongly and I bought it, but it's now looking like BBY did when I thought it ready for a bearish move. I'm sure GOOG is getting ripe for a good tanking, but when? Glad to see you're getting better.
I was suprised that GOOG traced too. That's why I decided to get wet: I was sure that everyone would buy into it even if everything is going sour. It looks to me that it is overbought and should take a header but now I'm not so sure. Gary B. Smith said today in his column that its one to own forever: in the same catagory as JNJ. Now I'm really confused. I'm not so sure about the energy thing, some of my positions just aren't going the way I thought. I'll go back and reread some of your thoughts there, I haven't had the time to do everything I want; losing so much time with the cold. I am also way afraid of ECA mostly because of Cramer. In one of his Real Money columns last week he said he'd love to have a call on IBM, that if he was at his hedge fund still he'd be all over it. So I listened and bought and it has been nothing but pain. Thinking about waking up really early to see if Libby and Rove get it. There could be a massive downdraft if that happens. A lot of money may be made with puts on that day. Be really careful out there, and good luck.
I'm going to say something about picks that I learned last week, because of your pain over IBM. At Cramer's advice to a caller to sell, I bought a put on ELY, though I hadn't so much as heard of it before. Again, on his strong buy recommendation, I bought calls on NT,GGC and TXN, not having known anything about them either. All of the above have gone opposite to expected, losing me about $600 - and TXN in particular is presently worth zilch. My point is that I learned not to buy blind on someone else's rec's, but only use their knowledgeable opinion to support or complement an interest I ALREADY have in a particular stock. That's the way the Lord prefers to work in my life in general - and I know I'm not alone - I've heard many stories of trading, investing, career choices, etc. going awry because of not filtering a rec through one's own mind and heart first. I guess what is to be celebrated and respected here is our own choosing first and someone else's second. Not to say that you weren't familiar and biased toward IBM already, I just assumed that and it reminded me of an important lesson I thought I'd pass on. The gnarly thing about it is that I already knew that - I'd just forgotten it!
I need to add something else I realized after hours today. I've been making a costly mistake in the way I buy options and I need to quit it. GOOG moved up over $5 today yet my pos'n's value didn't change. That's because the strike price I bought is so far out - NOV390 that GOOG could barely hope to hit that by expiry and so time erosion is working as fast as the stock is climbing to get there. I did that in the past on GOOG's first sharp rallies earlier in the summer and profitted when I rode them in the steepest part of the rises because they can also make money faster than closer strikes. It's a scarey way to play, and it also is the reason I lost an incredible amount of money when the same corrected $14 in 2 days. I would be glad to recover that in my lifetime if trading doesn't beat me up first. So, from now on, God help me, I'll play safer options with a closer strike. I wonder if GOOG can hold out til Nov.1 before it corrects, as the first trading day of any month is generally a good one. If we open Monday with some good E.R.'s or economic outlooks, maybe that'll be enough to tide us over til Tues.