For all you clowns that shorted GOOG on

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by stock777, Oct 31, 2005.

  1. I strongly advise every possible newbie reading this thread NOT to write out of the money calls on GOOG. ESPECIALLY NOT American types.
    I might be cautiously bearish on google, but I'm not a suicidal maniac.

    I stated some contrarian rules, I will never do that again. I see now, that somebody might actually follow them.
    #31     Nov 2, 2005
  2. nassau


    Do you mean you are cautiously bullish?

    You should elaborate you would be beneficial.

    Are you stating that one type of option allows you to be feed the position at random versus expiry?
    European versus American and the fact you never know what you received until after execution?

    If you write a call out of the money (which is above the current market price) and you were to receive the stock you would be up twice for the premium received and having a short position above the market?

    If you used the premium in a proper ratio fashion to buy calls you have control your top end exposure and puts for a possible additional profit if the market goes short.

    Agree, options are not for all but otherwise all trades are naked and still exposed, long or short.

    good luck with your trades.

    #32     Nov 2, 2005
  3. Ok,
    if someone is interested in options he should read Sheldon Natenberg "Option Volatility and Pricing", maybe also Charles Cottle "Coulda Shoulda Woulda".

    The main point is, to enter into an option position you have to forecast price and volatility. In this case we seem to have a mass psychology phenomenon, read Elias Canetti "Crowds and Power" for more.
    That means volatility will rather go up, maybe way up. I will bet my house GOOG is below 400 this time next year. That doesn't mean it's below 700 next week. We're not talking fundamentals anymore, this is crowd behaviour and crowds grow until they grow no more, then they disappear without traces...

    If you're a good tape reader (Wyckoff. Livermore) you can tell, the time is right, when it's right. But you couldn't tell possibly a second before.
    Since two days ago, I'm looking for signs of distribution or even short accumulation. I can virtually see everybody is preparing (just watch the prices and the spread of puts). But as long as buyers are coming in nobody will hit.
    #33     Nov 2, 2005
  4. Makes no sense. Price doesn't matter, its ratio to earnings does.

    Google trades at a 74 Price to earnings ratio right now, and yahoo trades at a 68 price to earnings ratio. I think its reasonable for google to be trading higher because they are growing at a quicker rate. Google's price seems reasonable and I say it goes to $450. I don't think they should ever split the stock. This might be your next birkshire. Longer term price target = $1,000, that is of course if they are earning $20 a share.
    #34     Nov 2, 2005
  5. Goog...Seems Generally wants more then 800 bucks in 250 Trade days
    I would not be freckin if seen at 1000$
    as U all Know how volitile this guy is generally I think from 450 to 500...will have to a correction...
    If one can buy and forget about I would say roughly 300 for entry...and never Look at at
    #35     Nov 2, 2005
  6. bump.

    Shorts Turkey
    #36     Nov 23, 2005
  7. I make virtually NO calls on stocks.

    I made an exception for this one.

    So obvious even ........

    Well, you know.
    #37     Nov 23, 2005
  8. I wished you GOOG shorts a happy holloween.

    Today is an early Merry Xmas to ya.

    #38     Dec 16, 2005
  9. Mvic


    Kudos to you Stock for having the sense and fortitude to ride goog up, wish I had. I was one of those who shorted it based on the lock up and post earnings earlier this year and made 36 points in a matter of weeks (not that I was arguing valuation mind you) but was met with your ridicule none the less. Different strokes for different folks. I recognize that the big money is made holiding and lettiing trades run, I am still small time in that respect. Still I hope to get there one day, each trade is a learning experience and I am holding trades longer than ever before so I am getting there. Again, kudos to you for a great trade.
    #39     Dec 17, 2005
  10. wasit for the truely explosive pannic run and shor thte reversal. goog needs a $30-$50 blowoff day to get a nice longer term short in. at 500 the market cap is $150 billion or 33 times sales which will be a great entry pt for a 20-30% pullback.
    #40     Dec 17, 2005