Fooled by Randomness

Discussion in 'Trading' started by johnny88, Aug 19, 2009.

  1. Besides equities, I am trying Futures as well. Currently using only 1 TY contract. What is the maximum leverage you take? Although with Futures I am not planning on day trading. My aim is to roll and hold for 2-5 years.
     
    #121     Aug 27, 2009
  2. You had better factor in cost-of-carry. Just a suggestion.
     
    #122     Aug 27, 2009
  3. Yes, the infamous PRDC (power reverse dual currency) notes linked to the level of USDJPY. There were some other factors, such as the pension fund woes, but PRDCs were by far the biggest culprit.
     
    #123     Aug 28, 2009
  4. Very interesting stuff, Mr Swan... It's a curious background you got yourself there.

    I happen to agree with your two scenarios for the future, but that's a discussion for another day.

    As I am off on vacation today and I don't know whether this thread will be alive when I get back, I wish everyone a good 2 weeks and hope to talk to y'all when I'm back.
     
    #124     Aug 28, 2009
  5. Serendipity has played a larger part in my life than it has for most people -- for both good and bad. It has opened up certain opportunities and in turn it was the pursuit of those opportunities (which seemed, in each case, quite natural) that totaled up to what one could rightly label "curious". It has more often been labeled "interesting" but personally I think the the best single word description is "odd".

    Yet a rose by any other name ... lol.

    Enjoy your vacation. Whether this thread lasts -- and it may -- or not, I am sure I will see you in a thread.
     
    #125     Aug 28, 2009
  6. Found an article on it (not the one I was looking for but does the job), there is also a news item from reuters that's decent.
    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/fears-mount-in-japan-over-complex-yen.html

    Yeah the other factors were massive Treasury issuance, and investors who wanted to add duration to portfolios after Lehman's demise. Everyone was hoarding capital so buying UST wasn't an option for many so they went to the swap market.
     
    #126     Aug 28, 2009
  7. I'm not sure what you mean. Please let me know.

    I was short TYU9 for a couple months, recently rolled into Z.
     
    #127     Aug 28, 2009
  8. It can be risky to be long or short out months with a small open interest and low volume. If you don't mind keeping substantial margin in the account and are not using stops that can gunned for then it probably doesn't matter.

    But for most traders having a position in anything but the spot month makes little sense.
     
    #128     Aug 28, 2009
  9. Yeah I only trade front contract, as the market rolls I roll as well. I was Short TYU9 last week, I closed it out this week and rolled to TYZ9. Again, sometime Late November I will roll to March. I don't like using stops, as I watch this all day long for my day job anyway.
     
    #129     Aug 29, 2009
  10. Wasn't paying attention -- it is that time again.

    I don't hold overnight and its always a jolt to me when I realize another quarter has passed.

    I am always suspicious when I don't make the tried and true play or protect myself in the tried and true fashion if my reason is : "I don't like ...... (fill in the blank)".

    Using stops clearly entails risk but a catastrophic stop, given the vagaries of communication, is a comfort to me. I give it enough room that it really has nothing to do with my trade management except in a move that is truly staggering in it's size.

    But ... to each his own!
     
    #130     Aug 29, 2009