I don't think so. Even though your methodology is unknown to me, most probably you are over trading. If this is the case, a simple change of mindset can help you. As we strive to become successful day traders, we forget what the title really entails. We picture ourselves as the Trader, the person who makes or creates trades, therefore we unconsciously and consciously spend all the time seeking trades out and 'trade' as much as possible. I think the term 'trader' in our definition has to be one of the most expensive words in the English language. The correct title, if I may humbly add, should be 'market observer'. A market observer, who 'finds' trades and does not seek them. As a market observer things that were previously invisible become visible. I will also like to add, by most measures, at least in my case, one should be finished with work by 11 or 12 noon. Follow through in the afternoon is too spotty imo. Hope this helps you get some future rest. ********** As a side note, thanks for your elaborate posts. I agree with you in the sense that there are only two possible ways out of this one.
Well, yet again, everyone, including myself, has spoken about the deficiencies of arbitrage pricing. It would be lovely indeed to have NNT (or anyone else) actually come up with some sort of a quantifiable and concrete ideas of how you could replace arbitrage-based models with equilibrium ones. How does he specifically propose pricing contingent liabilities? Again, I might be wrong, but I have not seen anything specific out of him...
Pro ... In the interest of brevity, when I comment on a post, I usually just pull out the meat of it. I am a great believer in brevity when it comes to WHAT OTHERS SAY ... lol. In this case I have copied your comment in its entirety as no one should miss any of your important and already fat free thinking. You have provided the most valuable of all services; you have told me what I "sort of and almost and should know" and you have done it right on time: Just at the point where I can accept it without trying to recast it. Over the years I have seen myself and others "recast" ideas and concepts that were already spot on. I think this makes it easier at some future date to remember it as our own nugget of wisdom. I have also observed that the better the original the more likely it is for the recast -- the knock off, if you will -- to be a bit shoddy by comparison. I can't afford to use shoddy thinking in this business, I need the McCoy. Without it, I simply will not make it. I am forever in your debt. A MARKET OBSERVER
Swan Noir, I got an article on it (neg 30 Y swap spreads) back in November, as I seem to recall it was due to hedging inversion notes. I'll see if I can dig it up at work, If you are interested I can scan and post (don't even know if that's possible on this forum). What do you guys do for a living anyway? Do you live off your trading account or is that more of hobby?
Since I don't know what an inversion note is maybe you shouldn't go through to much trouble to scan the article. I've had an interesting career that spanned a number of distinct and quite varied fields. As I mentioned in an earlier post in the 70's my partner and I owned three tiny investment banking operations -- one here in NYC and two overseas. At one time I owned and operated the second largest hypnosis based stop smoking seminar groups in North America. We rented large hotel ballrooms and hypnotized 300 -- 400 -- 500 people a night to quit smoking. It was a substantial operation for what began so casually. At its peak our ad budget was $200,00 a month and three of us working sections of the country hypnotized between 2,500 and 3,000 people a week. I also spent four years running a consulting firm that advised NYC merchants on how to secure what is known here as a "carry pistol license". Again, it started small but I ended up handling 85% of all the applications filed with police headquarters. As you can see it has been varied ...lol. I have a small bit of capital and I hope to trade ES in size in two or three years. I'm new to intraday trading and curently trade a single NQ contract. But just to define the size of my ambition I hope I am comfortable trading ES or CL in lots of 50 within three years. Yet I must admit I am not rushing to make my single contract two contracts at a pop. While I am accustomed to revving up businesses to a decent scale fairly quickly I am not in the market to speculate large amounts before my skill warrants it -- if ever. This is a very demanding business and I am here to make it pay ... not as a hobby.
Wow. Now I'm curious to hear some of your results in the outcome of this endeavor. Did you ever compile statistics on the efficacy? What kind of results did you obtain? I hope you have seen, 'The Great Buck Howard.' It will surely bring back some memories. http://www.amazon.com/Great-Buck-Ho...ef=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=dvd&qid=1251410249&sr=8-1
I told our clients what I believed in terms of results. Hypnosis has only one use if you are trying to quit smoking. Any one of fifty top hypnotists in the world can lower the PERCEPTION of withdrawal pain by 50, 60 or even 80%. Hypnosis is of no value in bolstering a subjects willpower. Post hypnotic suggestions given while in trance need to relate completely to the physical side of the process -- in this instance pain. At a fairly early point I realized that spending time and money tracking results was not in my economic self interest. So we aborted the effort before getting any useful data. I take it Buck Howard is a film, dt? Worth watching?
Film, Yes. Considering some of your experiences, I think you'll get a kick out of it. Lots of cultural references to the 80s (Carson, etc..). The description and preview are on the amzn link I attached.