As explained in thread http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=12396 this post is created to contain materials to illustrate the other and more abstract thread " Trading from the Viewpoint of Quality Control".
The first food is about psychology, judgement and probability: read the paragraph "Probability and Judgement": "Psychologists, building upon the pioneering work of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, have shown that all human beings approach experience with expectations and stereotypes that exert a strong and oftentimes distorting grip over judgement". http://science.ntu.ac.uk/rsscse/TS/gtb/tomlinson.pdf
The most frequent stereotypes in trading is war : http://www.strategies-tactics.com/suntzuphrases.htm some regrets it: http://www.ruthroosevelt.com/article_metaphor.html and of course casino games but in some games like poker it is like the war stererotypes.